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Backtested Performance (2023-2025)

Model validated against 6,951 historical MLB games from the modern era (post-2023 rule changes). Not live predictions.

Team Analysis

How accurately the model predicts outcomes when picking each MLB team.

Most Accurate Team

64.5%

Athletics (76 picks)

2nd Most Accurate

64.4%

Dodgers (337 picks)

3rd Most Accurate

64.1%

Astros (262 picks)

Least Accurate

51.9%

Angels (133 picks)

Win Rate When Picking Each Team

Home vs Away Pick Accuracy by Team (Top 15)

All Teams - Detailed Breakdown

Team	Picks	W-L	Win %	Profit	Home W-L	Away W-L
Athletics	76	49-27	64.5%	+$0	29-15	20-12
Dodgers	337	217-120	64.4%	+$0	117-60	100-60
Astros	262	168-94	64.1%	+$0	86-51	82-43
Phillies	332	212-120	63.9%	+$0	129-52	83-68
Marlins	141	89-52	63.1%	+$0	47-30	42-22
Braves	310	193-117	62.3%	+$0	99-64	94-53
Yankees	304	189-115	62.2%	+$0	96-57	93-58
Brewers	314	194-120	61.8%	+$0	113-63	81-57
Padres	288	178-110	61.8%	+$0	98-56	80-54
Rangers	282	174-108	61.7%	+$0	104-52	70-56
Blue Jays	250	154-96	61.6%	+$0	80-49	74-47
Orioles	250	154-96	61.6%	+$0	76-52	78-44
Pirates	173	104-69	60.1%	+$0	62-40	42-29
Diamondbacks	229	136-93	59.4%	+$0	74-52	62-41
Mariners	329	195-134	59.3%	+$0	112-56	83-78
Rays	265	157-108	59.2%	+$0	83-53	74-55
Tigers	299	177-122	59.2%	+$0	88-59	89-63
Guardians	239	141-98	59.0%	+$0	85-50	56-48
Cubs	290	170-120	58.6%	+$0	95-56	75-64
Nationals	106	62-44	58.5%	+$0	33-24	29-20
Reds	229	133-96	58.1%	+$0	69-48	64-48
Red Sox	216	125-91	57.9%	+$0	67-56	58-35
Twins	278	161-117	57.9%	+$0	89-63	72-54
Cardinals	187	108-79	57.8%	+$0	59-40	49-39
Giants	254	145-109	57.1%	+$0	81-54	64-55
Royals	214	121-93	56.5%	+$0	66-50	55-43
White Sox	74	41-33	55.4%	+$0	22-16	19-17
Mets	264	146-118	55.3%	+$0	78-57	68-61
Rockies	26	14-12	53.8%	+$0	10-8	4-4
Angels	133	69-64	51.9%	+$0	39-34	30-30