Preview for Wednesday, September 23, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves
The Cincinnati Reds head to Atlanta to face the Braves in a matchup that leans heavily toward the home side on the pitching front. Chris Sale takes the mound for Atlanta with a 2.18 ERA and a 2.35 FIP across approximately 157.0 innings pitched, figures that stand well ahead of Cincinnati starter Andrew Abbott, who carries a 4.70 ERA and a 4.98 FIP over roughly 159.0 innings pitched. Both pitchers have logged similar workloads this season, but the quality of their run prevention numbers is not close, with Sale holding a clear advantage in both ERA and FIP.
Looking at the team-level numbers, Atlanta also holds the better offensive mark with a WP-estimated wOBA of 0.312 compared to Cincinnati's 0.305, giving the Braves a modest edge in projected offensive production. On the run-prevention side, Atlanta's team ERA of 3.62 and FIP of 4.17 are both better than Cincinnati's team ERA of 4.86 and FIP of 4.89, reinforcing the gap seen at the individual starter level. Every one of the team figures favors Atlanta over Cincinnati, from scoring potential to preventing runs.
Injury notes for this game include Rayven Antonio and Starlyn De La Cruz of the Braves listed on the 60-Day IL and Bryce Elder of the Braves listed on the 15-Day IL, while Cincinnati has Sam Benschoter listed on the 7-Day IL, Chase Burns listed on the 15-Day IL, and Connor Burns listed on the 60-Day IL. These are simply reported statuses rather than indications of who will play, but taken together with the statistical gap between the two clubs, the overall body of available numbers favors Atlanta, largely on the strength of Sale's dominant season and the Braves' better team-wide ERA and FIP marks.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Braves -1.5. Confidence: Lock.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Braves: Ronald Acuña Jr.. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Reds: Elly De La Cruz. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.