Preview for Wednesday, September 23, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays visit the New York Yankees with Ian Seymour opposing Gerrit Cole in a matchup that leans toward the Yankees on paper. Seymour has worked approximately 127.3 innings with a 4.38 ERA and a 4.25 FIP, while Cole has thrown approximately 121.3 innings with a 3.63 ERA and a 3.99 FIP. Both pitchers' ERA marks sit lower than their FIP figures, but Cole's numbers are better across the board, giving New York the edge in the starting pitching comparison.
On the offensive side, the Rays hold a WP-estimated wOBA of 0.317 compared to the Yankees' 0.311, a slight edge for Tampa Bay's lineup production. However, New York's pitching staff numbers are stronger overall, with a team ERA of 3.21 and FIP of 3.76 against Tampa Bay's team ERA of 3.67 and FIP of 4.07. That gives the Yankees the better run-prevention profile even as the Rays hold a modest offensive statistical advantage.
Several injury statuses are listed for this matchup. Angel Benitez and Kervin Castro of the Yankees are listed on the 60-Day IL, and Angel Chivilli is listed on the 7-Day IL. For the Rays, Anderson Brito and Aaron Brooks are listed on the 60-Day IL, and Garrett Cleavinger is listed on the 15-Day IL. Taken together, the season-long statistics favor the Yankees, with Cole's superior ERA and FIP against Seymour and the team's stronger pitching marks outweighing Tampa Bay's slight edge in wOBA.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Rays +1.5. Confidence: Slight Lean.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Rays: Victor Mesa Jr.. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Yankees: Luis García Jr.. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.