Preview for Wednesday, September 23, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs
The Marlins head to Chicago for a 7:40 PM ET matchup with Ryan Gusto opposing Kevin Gausman. Gusto carries a 4.14 ERA and a WP-calculated FIP of 4.36 across roughly 82.7 innings this season, while Gausman has worked a much heavier load of about 172.0 innings with a 4.55 ERA but a lower WP-calculated FIP of 3.82. The gap between Gausman's ERA and his FIP suggests his underlying performance may have been stronger than his run-prevention numbers indicate, while Gusto's ERA and FIP sit closer together, reflecting a more consistent profile.
Offensively, the Cubs hold an edge in WP-estimated wOBA at 0.334 compared to the Marlins' 0.317, suggesting Chicago's lineup has produced more effectively as a whole. On the run-prevention side, Miami's team ERA of 4.13 is lower than Chicago's 4.17, and the Marlins also post a better team FIP at 4.24 versus the Cubs' 4.71, pointing to a staff that has limited runs a bit more efficiently than Chicago's overall pitching numbers suggest.
Several injury statuses are on record for this matchup. Aiva Arquette of the Marlins is listed on the 7-Day IL, and Anthony Bender is listed on the 15-Day IL, while Keyner Benitez is listed on the 60-Day IL. For the Cubs, Tyler Austin, Brandon Birdsell, and Ben Brown are all listed on the 60-Day IL. Weighing the team figures together, the Marlins show the better team ERA and FIP marks while the Cubs carry the higher team wOBA, and Gausman's lower FIP stands out against Gusto's higher mark even though Gusto's ERA is the lower of the two starters.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Cubs moneyline. Confidence: Confident.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Cubs: Michael Conforto. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Marlins: Griffin Conine. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.