Preview for Wednesday, September 23, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox
Cleveland Guardians travel to face the Boston Red Sox with a starting pitching matchup of Foster Griffin against Sonny Gray. Griffin has worked approximately 166.7 innings this season with an ERA of 3.67 and a WP-calculated FIP of 4.14. Gray has thrown approximately 163.0 innings with an ERA of 2.82 and a WP-calculated FIP of 3.57, giving him the lower marks in both categories compared to Griffin.
On the offensive side, Boston's team wOBA sits at 0.314 compared to Cleveland's 0.304, a slight advantage for the Red Sox lineup. Boston's pitching staff also carries a lower team ERA at 3.59 versus Cleveland's 3.77, and a lower team FIP of 3.74 against Cleveland's 3.89, suggesting the Red Sox hold an edge on both sides of the ball based on the season-to-date figures.
Roster notes include Jonah Advincula of the Guardians listed on the 7-Day IL, while Robert Arias and Shawn Armstrong are listed on the 60-Day IL for Cleveland. For Boston, Kristian Campbell is listed on the 7-Day IL, and both Triston Casas and Kutter Crawford are listed on the 60-Day IL. Taken together, the pitching and team-level numbers point toward Boston as the side favored by the available statistics, with Gray's lower ERA and FIP standing out against Griffin's higher figures in the same categories.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Guardians +1.5. Confidence: Slight Lean.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Guardians: Angel Martínez. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Red Sox: Mickey Gasper. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.