Preview for Wednesday, September 23, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates
The Cardinals head to Pittsburgh with Matthew Liberatore on the mound, and his season numbers have been rough, carrying a 5.36 ERA and a 4.74 FIP across approximately 149.3 innings pitched. The Pirates counter with Lake Bachar, who has been considerably sharper with a 3.56 ERA and a 4.55 FIP over about 83.3 innings pitched. Both FIP marks sit fairly close together, but Bachar's actual run prevention has been notably better than Liberatore's this season.
Looking at the team-wide figures, Pittsburgh holds the better numbers across the board. The Pirates' offense carries a WP-estimated wOBA of 0.321 compared to St. Louis's 0.304, giving Pittsburgh the edge at the plate. On the run-prevention side, Pittsburgh's team ERA of 4.16 and FIP of 3.89 are both lower than St. Louis's 4.28 ERA and 4.17 FIP, suggesting the Pirates have had the stronger pitching staff overall this season.
On the injury front, Pittsburgh has Braxton Ashcraft listed on the 15-Day IL and Kyler Fedko listed on the 7-Day IL, along with Jaiker Garcia listed on the 60-Day IL. St. Louis has Joshua Baez listed on the 10-Day IL, Hunter Dobbins listed on the 15-Day IL, and Frank Elissalt listed on the 60-Day IL. Taken together, the season-long figures for both the lineup and the rotation matchup point toward Pittsburgh as the side with the stronger overall numbers heading into this one.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Pirates moneyline. Confidence: Confident.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Cardinals: Leo Bernal. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Pirates: Rafael Flores Jr.. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.