Preview for Wednesday, September 23, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies
Milwaukee's Logan Henderson takes the mound with an ERA of 2.51 and a FIP of 3.37 across approximately 93.3 innings pitched, marks that stand out clearly against Philadelphia's Aaron Nola, who carries an ERA of 4.49 and a FIP of 4.86 over roughly 168.3 innings. Henderson's run-prevention numbers are considerably better than Nola's by both measures, giving the Brewers a notable edge in the head-to-head starter comparison.
On the offensive side, Milwaukee's team wOBA of 0.324 is higher than Philadelphia's 0.308, suggesting the Brewers' lineup has been the more productive of the two. Milwaukee's team ERA of 3.55 and FIP of 3.79 are also both lower than Philadelphia's team ERA of 4.00 and FIP of 3.86, pointing to stronger overall run prevention from the Brewers' pitching staff as a whole, not just from Henderson individually.
Roster notes include Grant Anderson listed on the 15-Day IL and J.B. Bukauskas and Sean Episcope each listed on the 60-Day IL for Milwaukee, while Philadelphia has Moises Chace, Adolis Garcia, and Connor Gillispie each listed on the 60-Day IL. Taken together, the statistical picture favors Milwaukee, with Henderson's superior ERA and FIP against Nola's, paired with the Brewers' better team wOBA, ERA, and FIP figures, all pointing in the same direction for this matchup.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Brewers moneyline. Confidence: Confident.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Brewers: Gary Sánchez. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Phillies: Bryce Harper. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.