Preview for Wednesday, September 23, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners
Houston Astros visit the Seattle Mariners with a pitching matchup that leans toward Seattle on paper. Ethan Pecko takes the ball for Houston with an ERA of 3.77 across roughly 28.7 innings pitched, though his WP-calculated FIP of 5.58 suggests the underlying numbers haven't been as strong as the ERA indicates. George Kirby starts for Seattle with a larger workload of approximately 169.7 innings pitched, an ERA of 4.24, and a WP-calculated FIP of 3.92, giving him a lower FIP than Pecko despite the higher ERA.
On the offensive side, Houston's WP-estimated wOBA sits at 0.314 compared to Seattle's 0.303, giving the Astros a slight edge in that measure. Team run-prevention marks favor Seattle overall, with the Mariners posting a WP-estimated FIP of 4.08 and ERA of 4.21 against Houston's WP-estimated FIP of 4.63 and ERA of 4.50, both of which are lower and therefore better marks for Seattle's pitching staff as a whole.
Several injury situations are listed heading into this one. Brandon Bielak and Jax Biggers of the Astros are both listed on the 60-Day IL, and Drew Brutcher of Houston carries the same designation. On the Mariners' side, Matt Brash, Nick Davila, and Brennen Davis are each listed on the 60-Day IL as well. Weighing the reported figures together, Seattle's team-level ERA and FIP numbers along with Kirby's lower FIP give the available statistics a favorable lean toward the Mariners, even though Houston holds a narrow advantage in the wOBA figure.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Astros +1.5. Confidence: Slight Lean.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Astros: Nelson Velázquez. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Mariners: Lazaro Montes. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.