WP Auto Picks — 2026-07-11
8/16 (50.0%)
8W - 8L
✓ WIN
(4-0)
🏆
WP'S PICK OF THE DAY
Strong model edge; Model sees more value than market; Significant pitching advantage; Strong Favourite badge; Underdog value play
Red Sox
@
4:10 PM ET
Mets
Confident
Career: 55.1%
(359-293)
POTD
Red Sox moneyline
Red Sox
Mets
Away SP: Eduardo Rivera (xFIP 1.37)
Home SP: Freddy Peralta (xFIP 4.14)
Red Sox Key Injuries:
Connelly Early, Zack Kelly, Ranger Suarez, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Nick Sogard
Mets Key Injuries:
None
Red Sox Dark Horse HR:
Anthony Seigler
Anthony SeiglerMets Dark Horse HR:
Eric Wagaman
Eric WagamanOver/Under (Game Total): Over 7.5
Posted 3:55 PM ET
✓ WIN
(2-3)
Brewers
@
12:05 PM ET
DH Game 1 of 2
Pirates
Slight Lean
Career: 60.0%
(538-359)
Brewers +1.5
Brewers
Pirates
Away SP: Brandon Sproat (xFIP 4.50)
Home SP: 
Braxton Ashcraft (xFIP 3.22)
Braxton Ashcraft (xFIP 3.22)Brewers Key Injuries:
DL Hall, Kyle Harrison, Carlos Rodriguez, Brandon Woodruff, David Hamilton
Pirates Key Injuries:
Evan Sisk, Oneil Cruz, Spencer Horwitz
Brewers Dark Horse HR:
Gary Sánchez
Gary SánchezPirates Dark Horse HR:
Esmerlyn Valdez
Esmerlyn ValdezOver/Under (Game Total): Over 8.5
Posted 12:00 PM ET
✓ WIN
(3-5)
Angels
@
2:10 PM ET
Twins
Strong
Career: 64.2%
(122-68)
Twins moneyline
Angels
Twins
Away SP: 
Ryan Johnson (xFIP 5.08)
Ryan Johnson (xFIP 5.08)Home SP: Joe Ryan (xFIP 2.88)
Angels Key Injuries:
None
Twins Key Injuries:
Mick Abel, Anthony Banda, Marco Raya, Byron Buxton
Angels Dark Horse HR:
Mike Trout
Mike TroutTwins Dark Horse HR:
Ryan Jeffers
Ryan JeffersOver/Under (Game Total): Over 9.0
Posted 1:55 PM ET
✓ WIN
(0-1)
Athletics
@
2:10 PM ET
White Sox
Confident
Career: 55.1%
(359-293)
White Sox moneyline
Athletics
White Sox
Away SP: 
Gage Jump (xFIP 3.59)
Gage Jump (xFIP 3.59)Home SP: 
Bryan Hudson (xFIP 3.04)
Bryan Hudson (xFIP 3.04)Athletics Key Injuries:
Zack Gelof, Nick Kurtz, Brent Rooker
White Sox Key Injuries:
Everson Pereira
Athletics Dark Horse HR:
Jonah Heim
Jonah HeimWhite Sox Dark Horse HR:
Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka MurakamiOver/Under (Game Total): Under 8.5
Posted 1:55 PM ET
✓ WIN
(2-3)
Brewers
@
4:05 PM ET
DH Game 2 of 2
Pirates
Slight Lean
Career: 60.0%
(538-359)
Brewers +1.5
Brewers
Pirates
Away SP: 
Shane Drohan (xFIP 4.50)
Shane Drohan (xFIP 4.50)Home SP: 
Bubba Chandler (xFIP 3.22)
Bubba Chandler (xFIP 3.22)Brewers Key Injuries:
DL Hall, Kyle Harrison, Carlos Rodriguez, Brandon Woodruff, David Hamilton
Pirates Key Injuries:
Evan Sisk, Oneil Cruz, Spencer Horwitz
Brewers Dark Horse HR:
Gary Sánchez
Gary SánchezPirates Dark Horse HR:
Esmerlyn Valdez
Esmerlyn ValdezOver/Under (Game Total): Over 8.5
Posted 12:00 PM ET
✗ LOSS
(2-4)
Rockies
@
4:05 PM ET
Giants
Slight Lean
Career: 60.0%
(538-359)
Rockies +1.5
Rockies
Giants
Away SP: Kyle Freeland (xFIP 4.31)
Home SP: Tyler Mahle (xFIP 4.23)
Rockies Key Injuries:
None
Giants Key Injuries:
Victor Bericoto, Matt Chapman, Jonah Cox
Rockies Dark Horse HR:
Mickey Moniak
Mickey MoniakGiants Dark Horse HR:
Casey Schmitt
Over/Under (Game Total): Over 8.5
Posted 3:50 PM ET
✓ WIN
(4-2)
Yankees
@
4:05 PM ET
Nationals
Confident
Career: 55.1%
(359-293)
Yankees moneyline
Yankees
Nationals
Away SP: 
Cam Schlittler (xFIP 2.63)
Cam Schlittler (xFIP 2.63)Home SP: PJ Poulin (xFIP 5.18)
Yankees Key Injuries:
Max Fried, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton
Nationals Key Injuries:
Brad Lord, Richard Lovelady
Yankees Dark Horse HR:
Paul Goldschmidt
Paul GoldschmidtNationals Dark Horse HR:
Luis García Jr.
Over/Under (Game Total): Under 9.0
Posted 3:50 PM ET
✗ LOSS
(4-1)
Guardians
@
4:10 PM ET
Marlins
Confident
Career: 55.1%
(359-293)
Marlins moneyline
Guardians
Marlins
Away SP: 
Tanner Bibee (xFIP 4.38)
Tanner Bibee (xFIP 4.38)Home SP: 
Eury Pérez (xFIP 4.11)
Eury Pérez (xFIP 4.11)Guardians Key Injuries:
Tim Herrin
Marlins Key Injuries:
Anthony Bender, John King, Owen Caissie
Guardians Dark Horse HR:
Gabriel Arias
Marlins Dark Horse HR:
Griffin Conine
Griffin ConineOver/Under (Game Total): Over 7.5
Posted 3:55 PM ET
✗ LOSS
(1-6)
Mariners
@
4:10 PM ET
Rays
Slight Lean
Career: 60.0%
(538-359)
Mariners +1.5
Mariners
Rays
Away SP: 
Logan Gilbert (xFIP 3.36)
Logan Gilbert (xFIP 3.36)Home SP: Griffin Jax (xFIP 4.01)
Mariners Key Injuries:
Matt Brash, Brendan Donovan
Rays Key Injuries:
Jesse Scholtens, Jake Fraley
Mariners Dark Horse HR:
Luke Raley
Rays Dark Horse HR:
Victor Mesa Jr.
Over/Under (Game Total): Over 7.0
Posted 3:55 PM ET
✗ LOSS
(4-2)
Phillies
@
6:10 PM ET
Tigers
Confident
Career: 55.1%
(359-293)
Tigers moneyline
Phillies
Tigers
Away SP: 
Cristopher Sánchez (xFIP 2.73)
Cristopher Sánchez (xFIP 2.73)Home SP: Casey Mize (xFIP 2.78)
Phillies Key Injuries:
None
Tigers Key Injuries:
Gleyber Torres
Phillies Dark Horse HR:
Bryce Harper
Bryce HarperTigers Dark Horse HR:
Kerry Carpenter
Over/Under (Game Total): Under 7.5
Posted 5:55 PM ET
✓ WIN
(9-3)
Astros
@
7:05 PM ET
Rangers
Slight Lean
Career: 60.0%
(538-359)
Astros +1.5
Astros
Rangers
Away SP: 
Peter Lambert (xFIP 4.23)
Peter Lambert (xFIP 4.23)Home SP: 
Kumar Rocker (xFIP 4.01)
Kumar Rocker (xFIP 4.01)Astros Key Injuries:
Kai-Wei Teng
Rangers Key Injuries:
Jalen Beeks, Jakob Junis, Corey Seager
Astros Dark Horse HR:
Christian Walker
Christian WalkerRangers Dark Horse HR:
Justin Foscue
Justin FoscueOver/Under (Game Total): Under 9.0
Posted 6:50 PM ET
✗ LOSS
(1-6)
Royals
@
7:05 PM ET
Orioles
Slight Lean
Career: 60.0%
(538-359)
Royals +1.5
Royals
Orioles
Away SP: 
Noah Cameron (xFIP 3.86)
Noah Cameron (xFIP 3.86)Home SP: 
Kyle Bradish (xFIP 4.12)
Kyle Bradish (xFIP 4.12)Royals Key Injuries:
Maikel Garcia, Kyle Isbel
Orioles Key Injuries:
Ryan Helsley
Royals Dark Horse HR:
Carter Jensen
Carter JensenOrioles Dark Horse HR:
Samuel Basallo
Samuel BasalloOver/Under (Game Total): Under 9.0
Posted 6:50 PM ET
✓ WIN
(5-3)
Cubs
@
7:10 PM ET
Reds
Confident
Career: 55.1%
(359-293)
Cubs moneyline
Cubs
Reds
Away SP: Javier Assad (xFIP 4.68)
Home SP: 
Nick Lodolo (xFIP 4.90)
Nick Lodolo (xFIP 4.90)Cubs Key Injuries:
Ben Brown, Riley Martin, Hoby Milner, Daniel Palencia, Ethan Roberts, +1 more
Reds Key Injuries:
Blake Dunn, Dane Myers
Cubs Dark Horse HR:
Michael Conforto
Michael ConfortoReds Dark Horse HR:
JJ Bleday
JJ BledayOver/Under (Game Total): Under 9.5
Posted 6:55 PM ET
✗ LOSS
(1-4)
Braves
@
7:15 PM ET
Cardinals
Confident
Career: 55.1%
(359-293)
Braves moneyline
Braves
Cardinals
Away SP: Reynaldo López (xFIP 4.21)
Home SP: 
Matthew Liberatore (xFIP 4.56)
Matthew Liberatore (xFIP 4.56)Braves Key Injuries:
Robert Suarez, Mike Yastrzemski
Cardinals Key Injuries:
None
Braves Dark Horse HR:
Michael Harris II
Michael Harris IICardinals Dark Horse HR:
Nelson Velázquez
Over/Under (Game Total): Over 8.5
Posted 7:00 PM ET
✗ LOSS
(7-8)
Blue Jays
@
8:40 PM ET
Padres
Confident
Career: 55.1%
(359-293)
Blue Jays moneyline
Blue Jays
Padres
Away SP: Trey Yesavage (xFIP 3.95)
Home SP: 
Walker Buehler (xFIP 4.07)
Walker Buehler (xFIP 4.07)Blue Jays Key Injuries:
None
Padres Key Injuries:
Jason Adam, Jeremiah Estrada, Samad Taylor
Blue Jays Dark Horse HR:
Brandon Valenzuela
Brandon ValenzuelaPadres Dark Horse HR:
Luis Campusano
Luis CampusanoOver/Under (Game Total): Over 8.0
Posted 8:25 PM ET
✗ LOSS
(9-2)
Diamondbacks
@
9:10 PM ET
Dodgers
Strong
Career: 64.2%
(122-68)
Dodgers moneyline
Diamondbacks
Dodgers
Away SP: 
Brandon Pfaadt (xFIP 4.62)
Brandon Pfaadt (xFIP 4.62)Home SP: 
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (xFIP 3.31)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (xFIP 3.31)Diamondbacks Key Injuries:
Michael Soroka, Jordan Lawlar
Dodgers Key Injuries:
Blake Treinen, Will Smith
Diamondbacks Dark Horse HR:
Corbin Carroll
Corbin CarrollDodgers Dark Horse HR:
Max Muncy
Max MuncyOver/Under (Game Total): Under 8.5
Posted 8:55 PM ET