WP Auto Picks — 2026-07-04
11/15 (73.3%)
11W - 4L
✗ LOSS
(3-4)
🏆
WP'S PICK OF THE DAY
Strong model edge; Model sees more value than market; Significant pitching advantage; Strong Favourite badge
Brewers
@
9:40 PM ET
Diamondbacks
Lock
Career: 62.2%
(23-14)
POTD
Brewers -1.5
Brewers
Diamondbacks
Away SP: Brandon Woodruff (xFIP 3.17)
Home SP: Merrill Kelly (xFIP 5.38)
Brewers Key Injuries:
DL Hall, Logan Henderson, Carlos Rodriguez, Brandon Lockridge
Diamondbacks Key Injuries:
Michael Soroka, Jordan Lawlar
Brewers Dark Horse HR:
Gary Sánchez
Diamondbacks Dark Horse HR:
Corbin Carroll
Over/Under (Game Total): Over 9.5
Posted 9:25 PM ET
✓ WIN
(7-1)
Pirates
@
11:05 AM ET
Nationals
Slight Lean
Career: 60.1%
(513-340)
Pirates +1.5
Pirates
Nationals
Away SP: Braxton Ashcraft (xFIP 3.22)
Home SP: Carson Palmquist (xFIP 1.67)
Pirates Key Injuries:
Evan Sisk, Oneil Cruz, Spencer Horwitz
Nationals Key Injuries:
Richard Lovelady
Pirates Dark Horse HR:
Esmerlyn Valdez
Nationals Dark Horse HR:
Luis García Jr.
Over/Under (Game Total): Over 9.5
Posted 10:25 PM ET
✓ WIN
(11-4)
Twins
@
1:35 PM ET
Yankees
Slight Lean
Career: 60.1%
(513-340)
Twins +1.5
Twins
Yankees
Away SP: Zebby Matthews (xFIP 4.21)
Home SP: Brendan Beck (xFIP 8.24)
Twins Key Injuries:
Mick Abel, Anthony Banda, Ryan Jeffers
Yankees Key Injuries:
Max Fried, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton
Twins Dark Horse HR:
Kody Clemens
Yankees Dark Horse HR:
Paul Goldschmidt
Over/Under (Game Total): Over 10.5
Posted 1:20 PM ET
✗ LOSS
(3-0)
Tigers
@
4:05 PM ET
Rangers
Slight Lean
Career: 60.1%
(513-340)
Rangers +1.5
Tigers
Rangers
Away SP: Jack Flaherty (xFIP 3.95)
Home SP: Cal Quantrill (xFIP 4.49)
Tigers Key Injuries:
Gleyber Torres
Rangers Key Injuries:
Jalen Beeks, Jakob Junis, Corey Seager, Wyatt Langford
Tigers Dark Horse HR:
Kerry Carpenter
Rangers Dark Horse HR:
Elias Díaz
Over/Under (Game Total): Over 8.5
Posted 3:50 PM ET
✓ WIN
(0-11)
Blue Jays
@
4:10 PM ET
Mariners
Strong
Career: 64.1%
(118-66)
Mariners moneyline
Blue Jays
Mariners
Away SP: Shane Bieber (xFIP 6.55)
Home SP: Logan Gilbert (xFIP 3.45)
Blue Jays Key Injuries:
None
Mariners Key Injuries:
Matt Brash, Cooper Criswell, Brendan Donovan
Blue Jays Dark Horse HR:
Luis Urías
Mariners Dark Horse HR:
Dominic Canzone
Over/Under (Game Total): Over 7.5
Posted 3:55 PM ET
✓ WIN
(8-5)
Orioles
@
7:10 PM ET
Reds
Confident
Career: 54.1%
(329-279)
Orioles moneyline
Orioles
Reds
Away SP: Brandon Young (xFIP 4.01)
Home SP: Hunter Greene (xFIP 5.00)
Orioles Key Injuries:
Ryan Helsley
Reds Key Injuries:
Blake Dunn, Dane Myers
Orioles Dark Horse HR:
Samuel Basallo
Reds Dark Horse HR:
JJ Bleday
Over/Under (Game Total): Over 9.0
Posted 6:55 PM ET
✗ LOSS
(8-10)
Rays
@
7:10 PM ET
Astros
Confident
Career: 54.1%
(329-279)
Rays moneyline
Rays
Astros
Away SP: Drew Rasmussen (xFIP 3.05)
Home SP: Hunter Brown (xFIP 3.45)
Rays Key Injuries:
Jesse Scholtens, Jake Fraley
Astros Key Injuries:
Kai-Wei Teng, Braden Shewmake
Rays Dark Horse HR:
Ryan Vilade
Astros Dark Horse HR:
Christian Walker
Over/Under (Game Total): Under 7.0
Posted 6:55 PM ET
✓ WIN
(3-1)
White Sox
@
7:10 PM ET
Guardians
Slight Lean
Career: 60.1%
(513-340)
White Sox +1.5
White Sox
Guardians
Away SP: Sean Burke (xFIP 3.87)
Home SP: Parker Messick (xFIP 3.12)
White Sox Key Injuries:
Munetaka Murakami, Everson Pereira
Guardians Key Injuries:
None
White Sox Dark Horse HR:
Randal Grichuk
Guardians Dark Horse HR:
David Fry
Over/Under (Game Total): Under 7.5
Posted 6:55 PM ET
✗ LOSS
(3-0)
Cardinals
@
8:08 PM ET
Cubs
Confident
Career: 54.1%
(329-279)
Cubs moneyline
Cardinals
Cubs
Away SP: Kyle Leahy (xFIP 4.25)
Home SP: Shota Imanaga (xFIP 4.07)
Cardinals Key Injuries:
None
Cubs Key Injuries:
Ben Brown, Riley Martin, Hoby Milner, Daniel Palencia, Ethan Roberts, +1 more
Cardinals Dark Horse HR:
Bryan Torres
Cubs Dark Horse HR:
Michael Conforto
Over/Under (Game Total): Over 8.0
Posted 7:55 PM ET
✓ WIN
(3-14)
Mets
@
8:08 PM ET
Braves
Strong
Career: 64.1%
(118-66)
Braves moneyline
Mets
Braves
Away SP: Sean Manaea (xFIP 3.71)
Home SP: Chris Sale (xFIP 2.61)
Mets Key Injuries:
None
Braves Key Injuries:
Robert Suarez
Mets Dark Horse HR:
Eric Wagaman
Braves Dark Horse HR:
Drake Baldwin
Over/Under (Game Total): Under 8.0
Posted 7:55 PM ET
✓ WIN
(6-4)
Giants
@
8:10 PM ET
Rockies
Confident
Career: 54.1%
(329-279)
Giants moneyline
Giants
Rockies
Away SP: Robbie Ray (xFIP 4.45)
Home SP: Sean Sullivan (xFIP 5.90)
Giants Key Injuries:
Keaton Winn, Matt Chapman
Rockies Key Injuries:
None
Giants Dark Horse HR:
Victor Bericoto
Rockies Dark Horse HR:
Mickey Moniak
Over/Under (Game Total): Under 12.5
Posted 7:55 PM ET
✓ WIN
(6-1)
Phillies
@
8:10 PM ET
Royals
Confident
Career: 54.1%
(329-279)
Phillies moneyline
Phillies
Royals
Away SP: Jesús Luzardo (xFIP 3.16)
Home SP: Michael Wacha (xFIP 3.76)
Phillies Key Injuries:
Brad Keller
Royals Key Injuries:
Maikel Garcia, Kyle Isbel, Vinnie Pasquantino
Phillies Dark Horse HR:
Bryce Harper
Royals Dark Horse HR:
Josh Rojas
Over/Under (Game Total): Under 9.0
Posted 7:55 PM ET
✓ WIN
(8-1)
Red Sox
@
9:38 PM ET
Angels
Strong
Career: 64.1%
(118-66)
Red Sox moneyline
Red Sox
Angels
Away SP: Sonny Gray (xFIP 3.64)
Home SP: Sam Aldegheri (xFIP 4.82)
Red Sox Key Injuries:
Connelly Early, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Nick Sogard
Angels Key Injuries:
Mike Trout
Red Sox Dark Horse HR:
Jarren Duran
Angels Dark Horse HR:
Jose Siri
Over/Under (Game Total): Under 8.5
Posted 9:25 PM ET
✓ WIN
(7-2)
Marlins
@
9:40 PM ET
Athletics
Confident
Career: 54.1%
(329-279)
Marlins moneyline
Marlins
Athletics
Away SP: Sandy Alcantara (xFIP 4.05)
Home SP: Aaron Civale (xFIP 4.73)
Marlins Key Injuries:
Anthony Bender
Athletics Key Injuries:
Jacob Wilson, Brent Rooker, Tyler Soderstrom
Marlins Dark Horse HR:
Esteury Ruiz
Athletics Dark Horse HR:
Jonah Heim
Over/Under (Game Total): Under 11.5
Posted 9:25 PM ET
✓ WIN
(0-3)
Padres
@
10:10 PM ET
Dodgers
Lock
Career: 62.2%
(23-14)
Dodgers -1.5
Padres
Dodgers
Away SP: Wandy Peralta (xFIP 4.03)
Home SP: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (xFIP 3.46)
Padres Key Injuries:
Jason Adam, Jeremiah Estrada
Dodgers Key Injuries:
Jake Eder, Blake Treinen, Will Smith
Padres Dark Horse HR:
Luis Campusano
Dodgers Dark Horse HR:
Max Muncy
Over/Under (Game Total): Under 8.5
Posted 9:55 PM ET