Preview for Monday, October 5, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
The New York Yankees visit the Tampa Bay Rays with a start time listed at 8:00 PM ET, and the pitching matchup is the clearest separator in the available numbers. The schedule feed lists Cam Schlittler for the Yankees, and his season-to-date line is excellent: a 1.95 ERA and a WP-calculated FIP of 2.63 across approximately 193.7 innings. The fact that his FIP is higher than his ERA suggests he has run a little better than the underlying components alone would indicate, but a 2.63 FIP is still a very strong mark over that workload.
Tampa Bay's listed starter is Freddy Peralta, who carries a 4.42 ERA and a WP-calculated FIP of 4.35 over approximately 169.0 innings. His ERA and FIP sit close together, so there is little sign that his results have strayed far from his underlying performance. Comparing the two starters directly, Schlittler has the lower ERA and the lower FIP, which makes him the better mark on both run-prevention measures. As always, the schedule feed's listings are not independent confirmation of the final lineup.
At the team level the picture is more balanced. The Rays hold a WP-estimated wOBA of 0.317 against 0.312 for the Yankees, a slight offensive edge for Tampa Bay. On run prevention, though, New York has the better numbers, with a 3.23 ERA and a 3.78 FIP compared with Tampa Bay's 3.70 ERA and 4.11 FIP. Rotowire lists Angel Benitez, Kervin Castro and Fernando Cruz of the Yankees on the 60-Day IL, while for the Rays it lists Anderson Brito and Aaron Brooks on the 60-Day IL and Wander Franco with a status of Out; these are source reports rather than assessments of impact on this game. Weighing it all, the available numbers favour the Yankees, mainly because of the starting pitching gap and the stronger team run-prevention figures, with the Rays' small wOBA advantage the main counterpoint.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Rays +1.5. Confidence: Slight Lean.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Rays: Victor Mesa Jr.. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Yankees: Luis García Jr.. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.