Preview for Saturday, October 3, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
The New York Yankees visit the Tampa Bay Rays with a 6:30 PM ET start listed in the schedule feed. The pitching matchup, as listed, is Gerrit Cole for New York against Drew Rasmussen for Tampa Bay, and the season-to-date figures lean toward Rasmussen. Rasmussen carries an ERA of 2.67 and a FIP of 2.89 across approximately 172.0 innings pitched, while Cole's matched record shows an ERA of 3.61 and a FIP of 4.00 over approximately 127.0 innings. Both marks are lower, and therefore better, for Rasmussen, and his FIP sitting close to his ERA suggests his results are supported by the underlying numbers. Cole's ERA is respectable, but his FIP is the higher of his two marks.
At the team level the picture is more mixed. The Yankees' pitching staff shows a WP-estimated FIP of 3.78 and an ERA of 3.23, both lower than the Rays' FIP of 4.11 and ERA of 3.70, so New York has the better run-prevention figures as a group. On offence, Tampa Bay holds a slight edge with a WP-estimated wOBA of 0.317 against 0.312 for the Yankees, a narrow gap that does not separate the lineups much.
On injuries, Rotowire lists Angel Benitez, Kervin Castro and Fernando Cruz of the Yankees on the 60-Day IL, and Anderson Brito and Aaron Brooks of the Rays on the 60-Day IL, with Wander Franco of the Rays listed as Out. These are source-reported statuses rather than assessments of impact on this game. Weighing it all, the available numbers favour the Rays mainly because of the starting pitching: Rasmussen's ERA and FIP are clearly better than Cole's, which offsets New York's stronger team-wide pitching figures and Tampa Bay's small wOBA advantage.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Yankees +1.5. Confidence: Slight Lean.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Rays: Victor Mesa Jr.. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Yankees: Luis García Jr.. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.