Preview for Sunday, September 20, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacks
The Yankees head to Arizona with a modest edge in team offense, as their wOBA of 0.312 tops the Diamondbacks' 0.309, and New York's pitching numbers also look stronger across the board, with a team ERA of 3.18 and FIP of 3.78 compared to Arizona's 4.11 ERA and 4.39 FIP. Those figures suggest New York has been the more balanced club so far this season on both sides of the ball, even if the gaps in wOBA are narrow.
On the mound, Will Warren takes the ball for New York with 148.0 innings pitched, an ERA of 3.89 and a FIP of 4.14, giving him a substantial workload and numbers that, while a bit higher than his team's overall marks, still reflect a pitcher who has taken a regular turn in the rotation. Corbin Burnes starts for Arizona with a much smaller sample of 7.7 innings pitched, an ERA of 5.87 and a FIP of 5.78, both of which are well behind Warren's marks and behind the Diamondbacks' own team averages, making his outing harder to gauge given the limited innings.
Arizona's injury report lists Kyle Amendt and Ryan Bruno on the 60-Day IL and Yordin Chalas on the 7-Day IL, while the Yankees show Angel Benitez on the 60-Day IL, Kervin Castro on the 60-Day IL and Jazz Chisholm on the 10-Day IL. Taken together, the team statistics and starting pitcher numbers favor the Yankees, whose ERA, FIP and wOBA all compare favorably to Arizona's, and whose starter Warren carries a far larger innings total and better run-prevention marks than Burnes brings into this matchup.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Yankees moneyline. Confidence: Confident.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Diamondbacks: Corbin Carroll. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Yankees: Luis García Jr.. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.