New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs Prediction – July 31, 2026
One of the more intriguing interleague matchups on the MLB calendar arrives on July 31, 2026, as the New York Yankees travel to Wrigley Field to face the Chicago Cubs. With two quality starting pitchers taking the mound and a tight win probability split, this game has all the ingredients for a compelling contest. Here is everything you need to know, including our WP Baseball Predictor analysis, injury report, and dark horse home run picks.
Starting Pitcher Matchup: Warren vs. Imanaga
This matchup features two arms who profile almost identically when examined through advanced pitching metrics, making it one of the more evenly balanced starter duels you will find on any given night.
Will Warren takes the ball for the Yankees carrying an xFIP of 3.97, a mark that reflects a pitcher capable of limiting damage and keeping New York's strong defense in position to win ballgames. Warren's ability to post that kind of expected fielding-independent number speaks to solid command and the ability to suppress hard contact.
On the other side, Cubs left-hander Shota Imanaga checks in with an xFIP of 3.95 — virtually identical to Warren's figure and marginally better by the slimmest of margins. Imanaga has established himself as one of the more reliable starters in the National League, and pitching at Wrigley Field in front of a home crowd only adds to the Cubs' advantage in this spot. The near-identical xFIP values between these two starters make it clear that neither team has a significant edge on the mound, placing additional weight on lineup depth, bullpen performance, and situational execution.
Why WP's Model Backs Yankees +1.5
Despite the Cubs holding a higher win probability at 54.6% compared to the Yankees' 45.4%, the WP Baseball Predictor's official pick lands on Yankees +1.5 on the run line. The logic here is sound. When the Cubs are not flagged as a strong favourite, the value in backing the Yankees to stay within a run and a half becomes apparent — especially given New York's elite team-wide pitching numbers.
The Yankees' team FIP of 3.74 and ERA of 3.31 represent two of the better collective pitching marks in baseball, meaning their bullpen and overall pitching staff are equipped to keep games close deep into the later innings. The Cubs, by contrast, carry a team FIP of 4.74 and ERA of 4.15, suggesting their bullpen could be a vulnerability once Imanaga exits. The Yankees' offense, posting a wOBA of 0.314, may be slightly below the Cubs' wOBA of 0.329, but New York's ability to suppress runs on a consistent basis makes the +1.5 cushion a valuable margin to work with.
Injury Report: Key Absences to Watch
Injuries on both sides could meaningfully shape the outcome of this contest.
- Yankees: Cody Bellinger (Hamstring, 10-Day IL), Luis Garcia (Elbow, Out), Luis Gil (Shoulder, 7-Day IL), Kaeden Kent (Undisclosed, 7-Day IL), and Carlos Lagrange (Shoulder, 7-Day IL) are all unavailable. The absence of Bellinger removes a key bat from the middle of the order, while the pitching staff depth takes a hit with Gil and Lagrange sidelined.
- Cubs: Ben Brown (Neck, 15-Day IL), Juan Cabada (Lower Body, Out), Edward Cabrera (Hamstring, 15-Day IL), Riley Martin (Elbow, 15-Day IL), and Phil Maton (Knee, 15-Day IL) are all out. The Cubs' bullpen is notably thinned, which could prove costly if Imanaga is removed early or the game extends into high-leverage late innings.
Dark Horse Home Run Picks
Every great matchup preview needs a longshot power pick, and this game delivers two intriguing options.
- Paul Goldschmidt (Yankees): A proven power threat with a history of delivering in big spots, Goldschmidt is worth watching against any left-handed pitcher with a premium scouting profile.
- Michael Conforto (Cubs): Conforto has the left-handed swing and pull-side power to take advantage of a favorable matchup at Wrigley, making him a legitimate dark horse to go deep on Friday evening.
Final Prediction
With virtually no separation between the two starting pitchers, a Cubs bullpen weakened by injuries, and the Yankees boasting elite team pitching numbers, the Yankees +1.5 represents the sharp play in this contest. Expect a tight, low-scoring game that could easily come down to a single run.
WP Pick: Yankees +1.5 | Cubs Win Probability: 54.6% | Yankees Win Probability: 45.4%