Preview for Tuesday, September 29, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros
Chicago White Sox visit Houston Astros with first pitch scheduled for 5:00 PM ET, and the pitching matchup leans heavily toward the visitors on paper. Hagen Smith takes the ball for Chicago with an ERA of 1.29 and a WP-calculated FIP of 2.42 across approximately 28.0 innings pitched, numbers that stand out sharply against Houston starter AJ Blubaugh's ERA of 3.66 and FIP of 4.38 over a much larger workload of approximately 96.0 innings pitched. Smith's smaller innings sample is worth keeping in mind, but the rate numbers themselves clearly favor him over Blubaugh in this comparison.
Looking at the team-level figures, the two offenses are close in quality, with Houston's WP-estimated wOBA of 0.317 just ahead of Chicago's 0.316. On the run-prevention side, the White Sox hold better team marks across the board, with a WP-estimated FIP of 4.32 and ERA of 4.12 compared to Houston's WP-estimated FIP of 4.59 and ERA of 4.45. That combination of a similar offensive footing and stronger pitching indicators gives Chicago the more favorable overall statistical profile heading into this game.
Both rosters carry notable injury designations. Chicago's Brooks Baldwin and Aldrin Batista are each listed on the 60-Day IL, while Joey Bart is listed on the 10-Day IL. Houston's Brandon Bielak, Jax Biggers, and Drew Brutcher are all listed on the 60-Day IL. With the offensive metrics nearly even and Chicago holding the edge in both team and starter pitching figures, the numbers as reported favor the White Sox in this matchup.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: White Sox moneyline. Confidence: Confident.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Astros: Lucas Spence. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for White Sox: Randal Grichuk. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.