Preview for Wednesday, September 16, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays
The Tigers head to Toronto with Keider Montero on the mound, and his season-long numbers stack up favorably against Max Scherzer's. Montero carries an ERA of 3.55 and a FIP of 4.16 across approximately 147.0 innings pitched, while Scherzer has posted an ERA of 6.38 and a FIP of 5.68 in a much smaller sample of approximately 67.7 innings pitched. Both starters' FIPs sit fairly close together relative to their ERAs, but Montero's overall body of work looks considerably stronger by both measures.
On the offensive side, Detroit's team wOBA of 0.312 is higher than Toronto's 0.303, giving the Tigers a slight edge at the plate based on the available figures. Detroit's team ERA of 3.64 is a bit higher than Toronto's team ERA of 3.94 in the other direction, but Detroit's team FIP of 4.09 is close to Toronto's team FIP of 4.06, suggesting the two pitching staffs are fairly evenly matched beyond their respective starters for this game.
Both clubs are dealing with notable injury situations. Rotowire lists Addison Barger of the Blue Jays as 60-Day IL, Jose Berrios of the Blue Jays as 60-Day IL, and Shane Bieber of the Blue Jays as 15-Day IL. For Detroit, Kerry Carpenter is listed as 10-Day IL, Paul DeJong is listed as 60-Day IL, and Jack Flaherty is listed as 15-Day IL. Weighing the pitching matchup and the team-level offensive wOBA together, the numbers on hand lean toward Detroit in this one, largely on the strength of Montero's much better starting-pitching line and a marginally better offensive figure.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Tigers moneyline. Confidence: Confident.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Blue Jays: Alejandro Kirk. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Tigers: Eduardo Valencia. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.