Preview for Sunday, September 20, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates
The Kansas City Royals head to Pittsburgh for a 1:35 PM ET start against a Pirates club that holds a modest edge in the offensive numbers, with Pittsburgh's WP-estimated wOBA of 0.322 outpacing Kansas City's 0.310. On the run-prevention side, the Pirates also look stronger as a team, carrying a WP-estimated FIP of 3.92 and an ERA of 4.20, both better than the Royals' team FIP of 4.72 and ERA of 4.66.
The starting pitching matchup pits Michael Wacha against Lake Bachar. Wacha brings a deeper workload with approximately 188.7 innings pitched and a strong ERA of 3.34, though his WP-calculated FIP of 4.34 suggests his results have outpaced his peripheral numbers. Bachar, with approximately 82.3 innings pitched, has a slightly higher ERA of 3.50 but a less favorable WP-calculated FIP of 4.59, making the two starters fairly comparable when FIP is weighed against ERA, even though Wacha's FIP is the better of the two marks.
Several injury situations are worth noting without altering the core picture. Braxton Ashcraft of the Pirates is listed on the 15-Day IL, and Kyler Fedko and Jaiker Garcia are also listed as Pirates on the 7-Day IL and 60-Day IL respectively. For Kansas City, Luinder Avila, Ryan Bergert, and Christian Chamberlain are each listed on the 60-Day IL. Taken together, the team-level figures favor Pittsburgh, whose better wOBA, FIP, and ERA give it the stronger overall statistical profile heading into this matchup, even as the starting pitching comparison itself remains closely matched between Wacha and Bachar.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Pirates +1.5. Confidence: Slight Lean.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Pirates: Rafael Flores Jr.. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Royals: John Rave. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.