Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals Prediction – August 7, 2026
The Colorado Rockies make the trip to St. Louis to face the Cardinals on August 7, 2026, in a matchup that WP Baseball Predictor's model views as a clear, if not overwhelming, Cardinals advantage. Here's a full breakdown of the pitching matchup, team context, injury concerns, and our dark horse home run selections.
Starting Pitcher Matchup: Feltner vs. Leahy
The pitching matchup is where this game's narrative begins — and where St. Louis holds its most definable edge heading into Friday night.
Ryan Feltner (Colorado Rockies)
Ryan Feltner takes the mound for Colorado carrying an xFIP of 4.98, a number that projects underlying struggles when it comes to run prevention. xFIP normalizes home run rates and offers a forward-looking measure of pitcher performance, and Feltner's mark near the 5.00 threshold suggests he profiles as a below-average starting option at this stage of the season. Feltner will need to keep the ball in the ballpark and limit hard contact to give the Rockies a realistic shot at stealing a road win.
Kyle Leahy (St. Louis Cardinals)
Kyle Leahy counters with an xFIP of 4.04, a notably stronger figure that suggests he has been limiting damage in a more sustainable way than his Rockies counterpart. The near full-run gap in xFIP between Leahy (4.04) and Feltner (4.98) is a meaningful distinction and represents one of the clearest reasons the model leans toward St. Louis in this contest. Leahy's ability to control the game early will be critical in setting the tone at Busch Stadium.
Why WP Baseball Predictor Favours the Cardinals
WP's model assigns the Cardinals a 66.4% win probability against the Rockies' 33.6%, making St. Louis a moderate favourite without reaching the threshold of a "strong" pick. Several layers of data support this lean:
- Pitching edge: Leahy's xFIP of 4.04 outpaces Feltner's 4.98, giving St. Louis the superior projected pitching performance on the night.
- Team ERA and FIP: The Cardinals own a team ERA of 4.12 and a FIP of 4.20, both significantly better than Colorado's team ERA of 5.51 and FIP of 4.88. St. Louis has been a more reliable run-prevention unit across the board.
- Offensive context: While the Cardinals' team wOBA of 0.304 trails Colorado's 0.322, St. Louis is benefiting from far superior pitching that more than compensates for the offensive gap.
Injury Report: Key Absences to Monitor
Injuries are a notable storyline for the Rockies in particular, with Colorado's bullpen and roster depth taking significant hits heading into this game.
Colorado Rockies Injuries
- Tyler Bell – Shoulder (Out)
- Brody Brecht – Shoulder (7-Day IL)
- Blas Castano – Pectoral (15-Day IL)
- Jackson Cox – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
- Jeff Criswell – Shoulder (15-Day IL)
The volume of pitching-related injuries for Colorado is concerning. Multiple arms unavailable in the bullpen could accelerate any mid-game struggles from Feltner, limiting the Rockies' ability to manage a long outing or a high-leverage situation.
St. Louis Cardinals Injuries
- Skylar Hales – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
- Travis Honeyman – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
- Ethan Young – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
St. Louis has its own absences to manage, though the Cardinals' injury picture appears less disruptive overall compared to Colorado's pitching staff attrition.
Dark Horse Home Run Picks
Every game has its potential breakout moments, and these two hitters are worth watching as long-shot HR candidates on August 7.
🔴 Mickey Moniak – Colorado Rockies
Moniak is our dark horse HR pick on the Rockies' side. If Colorado is going to manufacture any offensive magic against Leahy, Moniak has the pop to be that unexpected catalyst.
🔴 Nelson Velázquez – St. Louis Cardinals
Velázquez gets the dark horse nod for St. Louis. With Feltner's xFIP projecting vulnerability, Velázquez could be positioned to make the most of a hittable offering and leave the yard at Busch Stadium.
Final Prediction: Cardinals Win
With a superior starting pitcher, stronger team-wide pitching metrics, and a thinned-out Rockies bullpen due to injury, the Cardinals are the logical selection on August 7. WP Baseball Predictor backs St. Louis Cardinals moneyline with a 66.4% win probability. Back the Cardinals at home.