Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction – August 23, 2026
The Cincinnati Reds travel to Chase Field to face the Arizona Diamondbacks in an intriguing Sunday afternoon matchup. With the Diamondbacks installed as moderate favorites at 56.2% win probability according to the WP Baseball Predictor model, this game is far from a foregone conclusion. WP's official pick lands on the Reds +1.5, suggesting sharp bettors should take notice of Cincinnati's underdog value on the run line.
Starting Pitcher Matchup: Abbott vs. Bratt
Andrew Abbott (Reds)
Andrew Abbott takes the ball for Cincinnati carrying an xFIP of 4.59, a metric that reflects his expected fielding-independent performance based on strikeout rate, walk rate, and home run rate. That number places him in the range of a back-end starter, though it also tells only part of the story. Abbott will need to manage Arizona's lineup carefully in a hitter-friendly environment.
Mitch Bratt (Diamondbacks)
Mitch Bratt counters for Arizona with an xFIP of 5.28 — a figure that stands out as the most significant pitching storyline of this matchup. Bratt's mark is notably higher than Abbott's, indicating that on a peripherals basis, the Reds' starter holds a meaningful edge on the mound. When two pitchers face off with an xFIP gap of this size, it can play a significant role in where a model allocates value, and it is a key reason why WP's algorithm leans toward Cincinnati despite the Diamondbacks holding the overall win probability edge.
Why WP's Model Favors the Reds +1.5
The WP Baseball Predictor assigns the Diamondbacks a 56.2% win probability, making them the favorite to win outright. However, the model's official pick of Reds +1.5 reflects the run-line value available on Cincinnati. Several factors drive this lean:
- Pitching Matchup Advantage: Abbott's xFIP of 4.59 compares favorably to Bratt's 5.28, giving the Reds a genuine edge between the lines.
- Offensive Competitiveness: The Reds carry a team wOBA of 0.304 against Arizona's 0.312, meaning neither offense has a commanding advantage at the plate.
- Team Pitching Depth: Arizona's team FIP of 4.49 and ERA of 4.20 are solid, but the Reds' team ERA of 4.51 and FIP of 4.75 suggest a bullpen that could keep games competitive rather than surrender blowout margins.
In a game where the favorite is not strongly favored, run-line value on the underdog frequently represents the sharpest play — and that is precisely what WP's model identifies here.
Injury Report: Key Absences to Monitor
Reds Injuries
Cincinnati heads into this game with a notable injury list. Julian Aguiar, Jose Franco, Garrett Hampson, and Brandon Leibrandt are all on the 7-Day IL with various ailments, while Carson Spiers is listed as out entirely. These absences could impact roster depth, particularly in the bullpen and on the bench, limiting Cincinnati's flexibility in a close game.
Diamondbacks Injuries
Arizona is also dealing with significant personnel losses. Most notably, Ketel Marte (knee, 10-Day IL) is a key offensive piece whose absence meaningfully weakens the Diamondbacks' lineup. Lourdes Gurriel (thigh) and Drey Jameson (hip) are also sidelined, joined by Yordin Chalas and Aramis Garcia on the 7-Day IL. Marte's absence in particular removes one of Arizona's most dangerous bats at a critical moment.
Dark Horse Home Run Picks
🔴 Reds: JJ Bleday
Keep an eye on JJ Bleday as a sneaky power threat against Bratt's elevated xFIP. Pitchers with higher expected peripherals tend to allow more hard contact, and Bleday has the raw power to capitalize if Bratt misses his spots early in the count.
🐍 Diamondbacks: Corbin Carroll
Corbin Carroll is Arizona's dark horse pick to go deep. A dynamic left-handed bat with above-average exit velocity tools, Carroll has the speed and athleticism to turn on a pitch and surprise Abbott when the count works in his favor.
Final Prediction
With Mitch Bratt's concerning xFIP of 5.28 against Andrew Abbott's steadier 4.59, and Ketel Marte's absence weakening Arizona's core, the Reds +1.5 represents clear run-line value in a competitive matchup. Trust the WP Baseball Predictor's process: Reds +1.5 is the play for August 23, 2026.