Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs Prediction – August 28, 2026
The Cincinnati Reds travel to Chicago to face the Cubs in what projects to be a competitive mid-week NL matchup. According to the WP Baseball Predictor model, the Cubs hold a clear edge heading into Friday's contest, backed by a 65.5% win probability compared to just 34.5% for the visiting Reds. Here's a full breakdown of the pitching matchup, injury situations, and our dark horse home run picks.
Starting Pitcher Matchup: Lowder vs. Peterson
The pitching matchup sits at the center of this game's storyline, with two young arms taking the hill at Wrigley Field.
Rhett Lowder (Cincinnati Reds)
Rhett Lowder gets the ball for Cincinnati, carrying an xFIP of 4.55 into this start. That figure suggests Lowder has been susceptible to giving up hard contact and runs when adjusted for luck and defense, placing him on the shakier end of the pitching spectrum. Against a Cubs lineup that has posted a strong team wOBA of .330, Lowder will need to be at his sharpest to keep Cincinnati in contention.
David Peterson (Chicago Cubs)
David Peterson takes the mound for Chicago and holds a meaningful edge in this matchup, carrying an xFIP of 4.09 — a full 46 points better than his counterpart. That gap in expected performance is one of the primary drivers behind the model's lean toward the Cubs. Peterson's underlying metrics suggest he generates softer contact and limits damage more consistently, which aligns well against a Reds offense that has posted a team wOBA of just .304 — notably below the Cubs' offensive output.
The pitching edge clearly belongs to Peterson and Chicago, and when paired with the offensive disparity between the two clubs, it's easy to see why the model lands firmly on the Cubs side.
Why the WP Model Favors the Cubs
The Cubs' 65.5% win probability is built on several converging factors. First, the team wOBA gap is significant — Chicago's .330 mark versus Cincinnati's .304 reflects a Cubs offense that generates more quality contact and on-base production on a consistent basis. Second, David Peterson's xFIP advantage over Lowder gives Chicago a notable leg up in the pitching matchup. Finally, the Cubs' team ERA of 4.09 compares favorably to Cincinnati's 4.55, while both clubs' FIP figures are nearly identical (4.74 for Chicago, 4.75 for Cincinnati), indicating the ERA difference is not merely a product of luck. Taken together, these metrics paint a picture of a Cubs team that is better equipped offensively and gets a pitching edge on this particular day.
Injury Report: Key Absences for Both Clubs
Injuries are worth monitoring heading into this contest, with both rosters managing some depth concerns.
Cincinnati Reds Injuries
- Julian Aguiar – 7-Day IL (Undisclosed)
- Sam Benschoter – 7-Day IL (Undisclosed)
- Alfredo Duno – 7-Day IL (Hamstring)
- Jose Franco – 7-Day IL (Forearm)
- Garrett Hampson – 7-Day IL (Undisclosed)
Chicago Cubs Injuries
- Edward Cabrera – 15-Day IL (Finger)
- Gavin Hollowell – 15-Day IL (Shoulder)
- Corbin Martin – 7-Day IL (Undisclosed)
- Hoby Milner – 15-Day IL (Abdomen)
- Matt Shaw – 10-Day IL (Hand)
The Reds are dealing with five absences, which could stretch their bench and bullpen depth. Cincinnati's multiple undisclosed IL stints add a layer of uncertainty to their lineup construction. The Cubs are also navigating bullpen concerns with both Milner and Hollowell sidelined, but their overall offensive depth remains intact.
Dark Horse Home Run Picks
Reds: Héctor Rodríguez
Keep an eye on Héctor Rodríguez as Cincinnati's dark horse power threat. With several roster spots shuffled due to injuries, Rodríguez could see elevated opportunity and is worth watching in the home run market at favorable odds.
Cubs: Michael Conforto
Michael Conforto is our dark horse pick on the Chicago side. A left-handed bat with pop, Conforto is a sneaky HR candidate against Reds pitching, particularly if Lowder struggles to command his arsenal early in the ballgame.
Final Prediction
The WP Baseball Predictor model backs the Chicago Cubs moneyline on August 28. With a 65.5% win probability, a pitching edge through David Peterson, and a stronger offensive profile, the Cubs are the clear play in this NL matchup. While no outcome is guaranteed, the underlying data consistently points toward Chicago as the more complete team on paper for this contest.