Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Prediction – July 24, 2026
The Cincinnati Reds make the trip to Busch Stadium on July 24, 2026, for an NL Central showdown against the St. Louis Cardinals. According to the WP Baseball Predictor model, this is a competitive but reasonably clear lean toward the home side, with the Cardinals holding a 58.5% win probability against the Reds' 41.5%. With a meaningful pitching edge and a cleaner injury report, St. Louis shapes up as a solid moneyline play heading into Friday's contest.
Starting Pitcher Matchup: Lowder vs. May
The pitching matchup is where this game could be decided, and it strongly favors the Cardinals on paper.
Rhett Lowder (Cincinnati Reds)
Rhett Lowder gets the ball for Cincinnati, carrying an xFIP of 4.58. That number indicates that, when accounting for batted ball quality and removing the noise of defensive variation, Lowder is expected to be a slightly below-average starting pitcher at the major league level. While xFIP does not tell the entire story, a mark approaching 4.60 raises legitimate questions about his ability to keep the Cardinals' lineup in check over a full outing, particularly at home.
Dustin May (St. Louis Cardinals)
Dustin May presents a significantly stronger profile on the mound, posting an xFIP of 3.32. That figure places him comfortably in the upper tier of National League starters and suggests he has been generating quality contact suppression and favorable outcomes on a consistent basis. The gap between May's 3.32 xFIP and Lowder's 4.58 — a difference of 1.26 points — is substantial and arguably the single largest driver behind the WP model's lean toward St. Louis.
Team Stats and Overall Context
Beyond the individual pitching matchup, the team-level numbers paint a similar picture. The Cardinals hold an advantage in both pitching and offense:
- Cardinals: wOBA .307 | FIP 4.22 | ERA 4.18
- Reds: wOBA .308 | FIP 4.94 | ERA 4.56
While the offensive output is essentially dead-even — a near-identical wOBA of .307 and .308 respectively — the Cardinals carry a meaningfully better pitching staff overall. Their team FIP of 4.22 versus Cincinnati's 4.94 reflects a deeper and more reliable rotation and bullpen, which aligns with Dustin May's individual profile. The Cardinals' team ERA of 4.18 further supports the notion that St. Louis has been the more dependable pitching outfit throughout the season.
Injury Report: Key Absences to Monitor
The injury landscape adds another layer that tilts this game toward St. Louis.
Cincinnati Reds Injuries
- Blake Dunn – Elbow (10-Day IL)
- Nick Lodolo – Finger (15-Day IL)
- Matt McLain – Calf (10-Day IL)
- Tony Santillan – Oblique (15-Day IL)
- Carson Spiers – Elbow (Out)
Cincinnati is dealing with a notably crowded injured list, with five players sidelined across pitching and position player roles. The absence of depth options in both the lineup and the bullpen could prove costly if Lowder labors early.
St. Louis Cardinals Injuries
- Skylar Hales – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
- Travis Honeyman – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
- JoJo Romero – Abdomen (15-Day IL)
- Ethan Young – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
The Cardinals have their own injured players, but the list is less impactful in terms of depth and positional coverage compared to what Cincinnati is navigating.
Dark Horse Home Run Picks
Looking for longshot home run value in this matchup? Here are two names worth targeting on your HR prop slips:
- JJ Bleday (Reds): With several key pieces missing from Cincinnati's lineup, Bleday could see prime opportunities in favorable counts against a starter he may get a look at later in the game.
- Nelson Velázquez (Cardinals): A powerful right-handed bat who profiles as a dangerous dark horse against a pitcher carrying a 4.58 xFIP, Velázquez offers intriguing value if he connects on the right pitch.
WP Baseball Predictor Final Pick
The WP Baseball Predictor model issues a Cardinals moneyline selection for July 24, 2026. Dustin May's elite xFIP advantage over Rhett Lowder, a superior team pitching profile, and a less disruptive injury report all converge to make St. Louis the clear analytical choice. This is not flagged as a strong favorite situation, so bet sizing should reflect the moderate confidence level — but the edge is real and well-supported by the data.