Preview for Sunday, September 27, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays host the Reds with Max Scherzer taking the mound against Brandon Williamson, and neither starter has been especially sharp this season. Scherzer carries a 6.14 ERA and a 5.50 FIP over approximately 77.7 innings, while Williamson sits at a 4.89 ERA with a 5.81 FIP across roughly 49.7 innings. By ERA, Scherzer's mark is worse than Williamson's, but Williamson's FIP is actually worse than Scherzer's, suggesting the underlying performance for both pitchers has been shaky and results could hinge on factors beyond either man's peripheral numbers.
Looking at the team-level figures, Toronto's offense grades out with a 0.302 wOBA, essentially in line with Cincinnati's 0.304 wOBA, so neither club holds a meaningful edge at the plate based on these numbers. Where the separation shows up is on the run-prevention side: the Blue Jays' team ERA of 3.91 and FIP of 4.06 are both considerably better than the Reds' team ERA of 4.83 and FIP of 4.88. That gap in pitching staff performance stands out as the most notable statistical difference in this matchup.
Both rosters carry notable injury designations. Toronto has Addison Barger and Jose Berrios listed on the 60-Day IL and Shane Bieber listed on the 15-Day IL, while Cincinnati has Connor Burns listed on the 60-Day IL, Chase Burns listed on the 15-Day IL, and Sam Benschoter listed on the 7-Day IL. Given the wide gap in team ERA and FIP favoring Toronto's pitching staff, and a wOBA that is roughly even between the two offenses, the overall statistical picture leans toward the Blue Jays in this contest.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Reds +1.5. Confidence: Slight Lean.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Blue Jays: Davis Schneider. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Reds: Elly De La Cruz. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.