Preview for Saturday, September 26, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays
The Reds send Rhett Lowder to the mound against the Blue Jays and Trey Yesavage in a matchup that clearly favors Toronto's starting pitching. Lowder carries a 6.01 ERA and a WP-calculated FIP of 4.83 over approximately 127.3 innings pitched, while Yesavage has posted a much sharper 3.67 ERA with a FIP of 4.20 across roughly 95.7 innings. Both pitchers show some gap between ERA and FIP, but Yesavage's numbers are the stronger of the two across the board.
On the team level, the offensive numbers are close, with Cincinnati's WP-estimated wOBA of 0.304 slightly ahead of Toronto's 0.302. The bigger separation comes on the run-prevention side, where the Blue Jays' team ERA of 3.92 and FIP of 4.06 stand well ahead of the Reds' 4.85 ERA and 4.89 FIP. That gap in pitching and run prevention gives Toronto the more complete profile heading into this one.
Both clubs are dealing with notable injury situations. Toronto's Addison Barger and Jose Berrios are each listed on the 60-Day IL, and Shane Bieber is listed on the 15-Day IL. Cincinnati has Sam Benschoter listed on the 7-Day IL, Chase Burns listed on the 15-Day IL, and Connor Burns listed on the 60-Day IL. Despite those absences on both sides, the statistical picture favors Toronto, with Yesavage's superior starting numbers and the Blue Jays' better team ERA and FIP outweighing Cincinnati's marginal edge in wOBA.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Blue Jays moneyline. Confidence: Confident.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Blue Jays: Davis Schneider. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Reds: Elly De La Cruz. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.