Preview for Tuesday, September 29, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
The Yankees host the Red Sox at 8:00 PM ET in a matchup that leans heavily on the pitching. Cam Schlittler takes the mound for New York with an ERA of 1.95 and a FIP of 2.63 across roughly 193.7 innings pitched this season, a workload and run-prevention profile that stands out against Boston's Payton Tolle, who checks in with an ERA of 3.03 and a FIP of 3.11 over about 148.7 innings. Both pitchers have been effective by their own measures, but Schlittler's marks are clearly the stronger of the two on the numbers presented.
On the offensive side, the two clubs are essentially even, each carrying a WP-estimated wOBA of 0.312. Where they separate is in team-wide run prevention: the Yankees hold a lower ERA at 3.24 compared to Boston's 3.54, though Boston actually shows a slightly better FIP at 3.72 against New York's 3.78. That mix suggests the two staffs are close in quality overall, with New York getting better traditional run-prevention results while Boston's underlying peripheral number is marginally tighter.
Both teams are dealing with roster attrition reflected in their injury designations. The Yankees have Angel Benitez and Kervin Castro listed on the 60-Day IL, along with Fernando Cruz also on the 60-Day IL. Boston, meanwhile, has Kristian Campbell listed on the 7-Day IL and both Triston Casas and Kutter Crawford on the 60-Day IL. With offensive output rated as even between the two lineups, the more meaningful separation in this game comes down to the starting pitching, where Schlittler's superior ERA and FIP give New York's numbers the clearer edge on the mound.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Yankees moneyline. Confidence: Confident.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Red Sox: Wilyer Abreu. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Yankees: Luis García Jr.. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.