Preview for Sunday, September 20, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Boston sends Patrick Sandoval to the mound against Tampa Bay's Griffin Jax in a matchup with a modest gap in workload, as Jax has logged approximately 104.3 innings compared to Sandoval's 57.7. On the surface Sandoval's ERA of 4.99 is well behind Jax's 3.80, though the FIP figures are much closer, with Sandoval at 3.93 and Jax at 3.94, suggesting the two have actually missed bats and limited hard contact at a similar underlying rate this season even though the runs-allowed totals diverge.
Looking at the team-wide numbers, Tampa Bay holds a slight offensive edge with a wOBA of 0.319 compared to Boston's 0.314, while Boston's pitching staff has been marginally stingier by ERA, 3.58 to 3.72, and by FIP, 3.74 to 4.10. Those figures paint a fairly even matchup overall, with each side showing a small advantage in a different phase of the game.
On the injury front, Tampa Bay has Anderson Brito and Aaron Brooks both listed on the 60-Day IL and Garrett Cleavinger listed on the 15-Day IL, while Boston has Kristian Campbell listed on the 7-Day IL and both Triston Casas and Kutter Crawford listed on the 60-Day IL. Given the closely matched FIP marks for the starters and the split between Boston's better team ERA and FIP and Tampa Bay's better team wOBA, the statistical picture here is tight, with Boston's stronger run-prevention marks offering a slight lean against Tampa Bay's slightly better offensive output.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Rays moneyline. Confidence: Confident.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Rays: Victor Mesa Jr.. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Red Sox: Mickey Gasper. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.