Preview for Friday, September 18, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Boston's Ranger Suarez brings a 3.33 ERA and a 3.16 FIP across roughly 137.7 innings into this start, marks that stand up well against Tampa Bay's Ian Seymour, who carries a 4.27 ERA and a 4.09 FIP over about 122.3 innings. Suarez's numbers are the stronger of the two on the mound in every category listed, giving Boston the more reliable arm on paper for this matchup.
Offensively the tables turn somewhat, as the Rays post a team wOBA of 0.319 compared to Boston's 0.314, suggesting Tampa Bay's lineup has produced a bit more on a per-plate-appearance basis. On the run-prevention side, Boston's team ERA of 3.61 and FIP of 3.75 are both better than Tampa Bay's 3.73 ERA and 4.12 FIP, pointing to a Red Sox pitching staff that has been steadier overall this season.
Both rosters carry notable injury designations. Tampa Bay has Anderson Brito and Aaron Brooks each listed on the 60-Day IL and Garrett Cleavinger listed on the 15-Day IL, while Boston has Triston Casas and Kutter Crawford listed on the 60-Day IL and Kristian Campbell listed on the 7-Day IL. Weighing the pitching matchup and the team-wide ERA and FIP figures together, the available numbers lean toward Boston, with Suarez's superior individual marks and the Red Sox's better team pitching profile offsetting Tampa Bay's slightly higher team wOBA.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Red Sox +1.5. Confidence: Slight Lean.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Rays: Victor Mesa Jr.. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Red Sox: Mickey Gasper. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.