Preview for Thursday, September 17, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers
Boston sends Sonny Gray to the mound against Texas Rangers left-hander Tyler Alexander in this 8:05 PM ET matchup. Gray has been the stronger of the two by ERA, posting a 2.76 mark across approximately 156.7 innings pitched, with a WP-calculated FIP of 3.53. Alexander has worked a lighter workload of roughly 66.7 innings, with an ERA of 3.38 and a lower WP-calculated FIP of 3.08, suggesting his peripheral numbers have actually outpaced Gray's despite the higher ERA gap in Gray's favor.
Looking at the team-wide figures, Boston's offense carries a WP-estimated wOBA of 0.315, just ahead of Texas Rangers' 0.313, making the two lineups closely matched on paper. On the run-prevention side, Boston's staff owns the better marks across the board, with a WP-estimated FIP of 3.74 and ERA of 3.61 compared to Texas Rangers' FIP of 4.21 and ERA of 4.30, giving Boston a clearer team-level advantage than the offensive numbers alone would suggest.
Injury notes are present for both sides. Texas Rangers have Carter Baumler, Jalen Beeks, and Paul Bonzagni all listed on the 60-Day IL, while Boston has Kristian Campbell listed on the 7-Day IL and both Triston Casas and Kutter Crawford listed on the 60-Day IL. Taken together, the reported figures lean toward Boston, whose team ERA, FIP, and slightly higher wOBA all edge Texas Rangers' corresponding marks, even as the individual pitching matchup between Gray and Alexander is closer than the raw ERA figures might imply.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Rangers +1.5. Confidence: Slight Lean.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Rangers: Justin Foscue. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Red Sox: Mickey Gasper. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.