Preview for Wednesday, September 16, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers
Boston's Jake Bennett takes the mound with an ERA of 3.69 and a WP-calculated FIP of 3.70 over approximately 105.0 innings pitched, numbers that line up closely with each other and suggest a pitcher whose results have generally matched his underlying performance. Texas counters with MacKenzie Gore, who has logged approximately 161.7 innings with an ERA of 4.62 but a WP-calculated FIP of 3.84, a gap that hints his run prevention has lagged behind what his peripheral numbers would suggest. Comparing the two, Bennett's ERA and FIP both sit lower than Gore's ERA, and his FIP is also lower than Gore's FIP, giving Boston the edge on the pitching matchup as currently measured.
On the team level, Boston's offense carries a WP-estimated wOBA of 0.315 against Texas's 0.312, a modest advantage for the Red Sox at the plate. Boston's pitching staff also shows better marks as a whole, with a WP-estimated FIP of 3.75 and ERA of 3.59, both lower than Texas's WP-estimated FIP of 4.21 and ERA of 4.31. Across nearly every team-level figure listed, Boston holds the favorable number compared to Texas.
Both rosters carry notable injury designations. Texas has Carter Baumler, Jalen Beeks, and Paul Bonzagni all listed on the 60-Day IL, while Boston has Kristian Campbell listed on the 7-Day IL and both Triston Casas and Kutter Crawford listed on the 60-Day IL. Taken together, the statistical picture favors Boston, whose team-level offensive and pitching figures and whose starter's ERA and FIP both outperform their Texas counterparts.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Red Sox moneyline. Confidence: Confident.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Rangers: Justin Foscue. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Red Sox: Mickey Gasper. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.