Preview for Thursday, September 24, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
The Rays head to New York with Ian Seymour on the mound against Cam Schlittler, and the gap between the two starters is the headline of this matchup. Seymour has worked approximately 127.3 innings this season with a 4.38 ERA and a WP-calculated FIP of 4.25, while Schlittler has been in a different class over 190.7 innings, posting a 1.94 ERA and a 2.64 FIP. Both marks favor Schlittler by a wide margin, giving the Yankees a clear starting pitching advantage on paper.
Looking at the team-level numbers, Tampa Bay actually holds a slight edge in offensive quality with a WP-estimated wOBA of 0.317 compared to New York's 0.312. On the run-prevention side, though, the Yankees look stronger as a staff, with a WP-estimated FIP of 3.76 and ERA of 3.21 versus the Rays' FIP of 4.10 and ERA of 3.71. That combination suggests New York's pitching depth is outperforming Tampa Bay's on the whole, even with the Rays carrying a small offensive statistical advantage.
Both clubs have some rotation-related injury designations of note. Anderson Brito and Aaron Brooks are listed on the 60-Day IL for the Rays, and Garrett Cleavinger is listed on the 15-Day IL for Tampa Bay, while the Yankees have Angel Benitez and Kervin Castro listed on the 60-Day IL and Angel Chivilli on the 7-Day IL. Weighing everything together, the Yankees' clear starting pitching edge with Schlittler on the mound, paired with New York's better team ERA and FIP, gives the available numbers a lean toward New York in this matchup, even though Tampa Bay's offensive wOBA figure is marginally higher.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Yankees moneyline. Confidence: Confident.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Rays: Victor Mesa Jr.. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Yankees: Luis García Jr.. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.