Preview for Friday, September 25, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies
The Rays send Freddy Peralta to the mound against the Phillies, who counter with Cristopher Sánchez, and this is a matchup that favors the home starter by a clear margin. Peralta has worked approximately 163.7 innings with an ERA of 4.56 and a FIP of 4.39, while Sánchez has thrown approximately 200.0 innings with an ERA of 2.93 and a FIP of 2.88. Sánchez's numbers across the board are the better marks in this game, suggesting Philadelphia holds the more reliable arm on the mound tonight.
On the offensive side, Tampa Bay carries a wOBA of 0.317 as a team, which is better than Philadelphia's team wOBA of 0.307. The Rays also post a team ERA of 3.73 and FIP of 4.11, compared to the Phillies' team ERA of 4.01 and FIP of 3.86. That leaves a mixed picture on the run-prevention side, with the Rays showing the better team ERA and the Phillies showing the better team FIP, while Tampa Bay's offense rates slightly ahead of Philadelphia's by the wOBA measure.
Several injury statuses are on record for this game. Anderson Brito and Aaron Brooks of the Rays are listed on the 60-Day IL, and Garrett Cleavinger of the Rays is listed on the 15-Day IL. For the Phillies, Moises Chace, Adolis Garcia, and Connor Gillispie are all listed on the 60-Day IL. Taken together, the pitching matchup gives Philadelphia the more favorable numbers tonight, with Sánchez's ERA and FIP standing out as the strongest figures in the game, even as Tampa Bay's team-level offensive and ERA numbers keep things closer than the starting pitching split alone would suggest.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Rays +1.5. Confidence: Slight Lean.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Phillies: Bryce Harper. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Rays: Victor Mesa Jr.. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.