Preview for Sunday, September 27, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers
Sunday's series finale at Detroit features Jared Jones taking the mound for Pittsburgh against River Ryan for the Tigers. Jones has been a steady presence in the Pirates rotation with approximately 97.7 innings pitched, an ERA of 3.87 and a FIP of 3.36, showing solid run-prevention marks. Ryan, by contrast, has thrown just 3.0 innings this season with an ERA of 0.00 and a FIP of 2.17, figures that come from an extremely small sample and should be read with that context in mind.
Looking at the team-level numbers, Pittsburgh holds a slight offensive edge with a wOBA of 0.321 compared to Detroit's 0.314. On the pitching side, the Pirates' team FIP sits at 3.89 against the Tigers' 4.08, favoring Pittsburgh, though Detroit's team ERA of 3.66 is better than Pittsburgh's 4.17. These crosscurrents make the team-wide picture a mixed one, with the Pirates showing better peripheral marks and the Tigers showing a better surface-level ERA.
Both clubs are dealing with reported injuries. Braxton Ashcraft and Kyler Fedko are listed on the 15-Day IL and 7-Day IL respectively for Pittsburgh, while Jaiker Garcia is listed on the 60-Day IL. Detroit has Kerry Carpenter and Paul DeJong listed on the 60-Day IL and Kyle Finnegan listed on the 15-Day IL. Taken together, the reported figures lean toward Pittsburgh given Jones's more proven innings total and stronger FIP alongside the Pirates' better team FIP and wOBA, even though Detroit's team ERA reads more favorably.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Tigers +1.5. Confidence: Slight Lean.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Pirates: Rafael Flores Jr.. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Tigers: Eduardo Valencia. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.