Preview for Saturday, September 26, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers
Pittsburgh sends Kirby Yates to the mound in a start for a pitcher who has typically worked in relief, and his numbers so far are strong across a small sample of approximately 40.7 innings pitched, with an ERA of 3.32 and a WP-calculated FIP of 3.32. Detroit counters with Justin Verlander, whose line reflects a very limited workload of approximately 3.7 innings pitched, an ERA of 12.27, and a FIP of 7.81. Based purely on the figures provided, Yates has been the far more effective run-preventer this season, though the small innings totals for both pitchers mean these numbers should be read as early-season snapshots rather than large bodies of work.
Looking at the team-level statistics, Pittsburgh holds a WP-estimated wOBA of 0.320 compared to Detroit's 0.314, giving the Pirates a slight offensive edge by that measure. On the run-prevention side, Pittsburgh's team ERA sits at 4.17 with a FIP of 3.89, while Detroit's team ERA is 3.67 with a FIP of 4.08. That leaves a mixed picture for the Tigers, whose earned run average is better than Pittsburgh's but whose FIP is worse, suggesting some difference between their surface-level run prevention and the underlying components.
Both clubs are dealing with injury statuses connected to their pitching and rotation depth. Detroit's Kerry Carpenter is listed on the 10-Day IL, Paul DeJong is listed on the 60-Day IL, and Kyle Finnegan is listed on the 15-Day IL. Pittsburgh's Braxton Ashcraft is listed on the 15-Day IL, Kyler Fedko is listed on the 7-Day IL, and Jaiker Garcia is listed on the 60-Day IL. Weighing the starting pitcher figures alongside the team wOBA numbers, the available data favors Pittsburgh, largely on the strength of Yates's markedly lower ERA and FIP against Verlander's figures in this matchup.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Tigers +1.5. Confidence: Slight Lean.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Pirates: Rafael Flores Jr.. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Tigers: Eduardo Valencia. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.