Preview for Friday, September 25, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers
The Pirates head to Detroit with Bubba Chandler on the mound, and his 4.34 ERA and 4.28 FIP over approximately 151.3 innings give a fairly consistent picture of a pitcher who has been solidly average across a full workload. Jackson Jobe starts for the Tigers with a smaller sample of roughly 40.7 innings, posting a 3.98 ERA that looks better on the surface but comes with a FIP of 4.62, notably higher than his ERA and also higher than Chandler's FIP, suggesting the underlying peripherals favor Chandler more than the raw ERA figures would indicate.
Looking at the team-level numbers, Pittsburgh carries the better offensive mark with a wOBA of 0.321 compared to Detroit's 0.313, while Detroit holds the edge in run prevention with a team ERA of 3.65 against Pittsburgh's 4.15. The FIP figures flip that relationship, though, with the Pirates at 3.88 and the Tigers at 4.09, meaning Pittsburgh's pitching peripherals actually look stronger than what its ERA suggests, while Detroit's ERA outperforms its FIP.
On the injury front, Rotowire lists Braxton Ashcraft and Kyler Fedko of the Pirates on the 15-Day IL and 7-Day IL respectively, with Jaiker Garcia on the 60-Day IL for Pittsburgh. Detroit has Kerry Carpenter listed on the 10-Day IL, Paul DeJong on the 60-Day IL, and Kyle Finnegan on the 15-Day IL. Weighing everything together, Pittsburgh's edges in wOBA and FIP on both the team and starter level give the available numbers a slight lean toward the Pirates, even though Detroit's team ERA and Jobe's surface ERA look favorable at first glance.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Pirates +1.5. Confidence: Slight Lean.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Pirates: Rafael Flores Jr.. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Tigers: Eduardo Valencia. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.