Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction – August 22, 2026
The Pittsburgh Pirates make the trip to Dodger Stadium on August 22, 2026, for what shapes up to be a compelling interleague matchup on paper — even if the probability numbers tell a fairly clear story. WP Baseball Predictor gives the Los Angeles Dodgers a 67.5% win probability against Pittsburgh's 32.5%, making Los Angeles the recommended moneyline pick for this contest, though not quite at the threshold to qualify as a strong favourite.
Starting Pitcher Matchup Analysis
The most decisive factor separating these two clubs on August 22 sits atop each rotation. The pitching matchup is genuinely lopsided, and the xFIP numbers make that clear.
Tarik Skubal – Los Angeles Dodgers
Tarik Skubal takes the bump for Los Angeles carrying an xFIP of 2.83, one of the most elite marks you'll find anywhere in the majors. Expected Fielding Independent Pitching strips away the noise of defense and luck, giving us a clean read on a pitcher's true performance level — and a 2.83 xFIP signals a starter who is consistently missing bats and limiting hard contact at a high level. For Pittsburgh's lineup, which carries a team wOBA of .324, facing Skubal represents a significant challenge. The Dodgers couldn't ask for a better arm to anchor this home contest.
Jared Jones – Pittsburgh Pirates
Jared Jones counters for the Pirates with an xFIP of 3.79, a respectable number that reflects a capable starting pitcher. However, placed side-by-side with Skubal's 2.83, the gap is difficult to ignore — nearly a full run of expected production separates these two starters. Pittsburgh will need strong run support to overcome that disadvantage, and their offense will be tested against one of the better pitching profiles in baseball.
Why WP's Model Favours the Dodgers
Beyond the pitching matchup, the underlying team metrics reinforce Los Angeles's edge. The Dodgers post a team wOBA of .330 against Pittsburgh's .324, giving LA a slight but meaningful offensive advantage. On the pitching side, both clubs run similar team FIP figures — the Dodgers at 4.01 and the Pirates at 4.0 — suggesting the bullpens are relatively comparable. Where Los Angeles separates itself is team ERA: the Dodgers sit at 3.70 compared to Pittsburgh's 4.29, reflecting a more consistent ability to suppress runs across the full staff. Combined with Skubal's dominant xFIP advantage over Jones, the model's lean toward the Dodgers is well-supported by the data.
Injury Report: Key Absences to Watch
Injuries on both sides could influence how this game unfolds, particularly in the later innings.
Pittsburgh Pirates Injuries
- Jhostynxon Garcia – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
- Robert Hassell – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
- Ryan O'Hearn – Quadriceps (10-Day IL)
- Endy Rodriguez – Hip (10-Day IL)
The Pirates are shorthanded in a meaningful way. Losing O'Hearn and Rodriguez to IL stints limits Pittsburgh's offensive depth at a time when they need every productive bat available against a pitcher of Skubal's caliber.
Los Angeles Dodgers Injuries
- Edwin Diaz – Neck (15-Day IL)
- Will Klein – Elbow (15-Day IL)
- Chris Campos – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
- Wyatt Crowell – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
- Kendall George – Knee (Out)
The Dodgers' most notable absence is closer Edwin Diaz, sidelined with a neck issue. If Los Angeles holds a lead into the late innings, their bullpen construction will be tested without him available.
Dark Horse Home Run Picks
Every game has its sleeper power bats. Here are two players worth monitoring for longball upside on August 22:
- Rafael Flores Jr. (Pirates) – WP's dark horse HR pick on the Pittsburgh side. If Jones keeps the game close and Pittsburgh finds a way to generate traffic, Flores Jr. is a name to watch for unexpected pop against the Dodgers' staff.
- Max Muncy (Dodgers) – A proven power threat in Dodger blue, Muncy is WP's dark horse pick to go deep on the LA side. Against a Jones outing where a mistake pitch is always possible, Muncy's left-handed power to right field makes him a dangerous option at any price.
Final Prediction
With Tarik Skubal's elite 2.83 xFIP leading the way, a healthier roster, and stronger underlying offensive metrics, the Los Angeles Dodgers are the clear value play on the moneyline. WP Baseball Predictor's official pick: Dodgers moneyline.