Preview for Sunday, September 20, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
Philadelphia sends Cristopher Sánchez to the mound against New York's Jonah Tong in a matchup with a notable innings gap between the two starters. Sánchez has thrown approximately 193.7 innings this season with a 2.93 ERA and a WP-calculated FIP of 2.87, both markedly better run-prevention marks than what Tong has posted so far. Tong, with approximately 21.0 innings pitched, carries a 3.43 ERA and a WP-calculated FIP of 3.93, numbers that are still respectable but come from a much smaller sample and sit well behind Sánchez's figures.
At the team level, the two clubs are fairly close on offense, with Philadelphia's WP-estimated wOBA of 0.308 just a touch ahead of New York's 0.306. On the run-prevention side, Philadelphia's team ERA of 4.02 and FIP of 3.89 are both lower than the Mets' matching 4.15 ERA and 4.15 FIP, giving the Phillies the more favorable overall pitching profile even before accounting for the starters.
Several injury designations are on record for this game. Boston Baro is listed on the 60-Day IL for the Mets, Danis Correa is listed on the 7-Day IL for the Mets, and Daniel Duarte is listed on the 15-Day IL for the Mets. For Philadelphia, Moises Chace is listed on the 60-Day IL, Nestor Cortes is listed on the 7-Day IL, and Adolis Garcia is listed on the 60-Day IL. Taken together, the pitching numbers favor Philadelphia, with Sánchez's superior ERA and FIP over a considerably larger workload standing out alongside the Phillies' better team ERA and FIP, while the offensive gap between the two lineups is minimal.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Mets +1.5. Confidence: Slight Lean.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Mets: Francisco Lindor. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Phillies: Bryce Harper. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.