Preview for Saturday, September 19, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
Philadelphia and New York meet with the Phillies carrying a slightly better offensive mark, a WP-estimated wOBA of 0.308 compared to the Mets' 0.305. On the run-prevention side, the Phillies' team ERA of 3.98 and FIP of 3.87 both come in lower than the Mets' 4.16 ERA and 4.17 FIP, suggesting Philadelphia has been the stronger pitching staff overall this season.
The starting pitcher matchup, though, tilts toward the Mets. Christian Scott brings an ERA of 3.76 and a WP-calculated FIP of 3.81 across approximately 105.3 innings pitched, both figures well ahead of what Andrew Painter has produced. Painter's ERA sits at 5.54 with a FIP of 4.83 over roughly 115.3 innings pitched, meaning that while he has logged more innings, his per-inning results have lagged behind Scott's this season.
Several injury notes surround this game without directly involving the starters. Boston Baro of the Mets is listed on the 60-Day IL, Danis Correa of the Mets is listed on the 7-Day IL, and Daniel Duarte of the Mets is listed on the 15-Day IL. For the Phillies, Moises Chace is listed on the 60-Day IL, Nestor Cortes is listed on the 7-Day IL, and Adolis Garcia is listed on the 60-Day IL. Taken together, the team-level numbers favor Philadelphia's offense and overall pitching staff, but the individual starting pitcher figures point toward Scott holding a clear statistical edge over Painter in this particular matchup.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Phillies +1.5. Confidence: Slight Lean.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Mets: Francisco Lindor. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Phillies: Bryce Harper. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.