Preview for Thursday, September 24, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
The Padres head to Los Angeles for a late-night matchup with Nick Pivetta on the mound against Tyler Glasnow. Pivetta has worked approximately 30.0 innings this season with a 3.30 ERA and a WP-calculated FIP of 2.40, numbers that suggest he has been missing bats and limiting hard contact more than his surface run prevention alone would indicate. Glasnow, with a larger workload of approximately 67.7 innings, carries a 3.46 ERA and a 3.01 FIP, a solid but slightly less dominant peripheral mark than Pivetta's in a smaller sample.
Looking at the team-level numbers, the Dodgers hold the edge in the offensive department with a WP-estimated wOBA of 0.332 compared to the Padres' 0.312, meaning Los Angeles projects as the more productive offense overall. On the run-prevention side, the Dodgers' team ERA of 3.59 and FIP of 3.84 are both better than San Diego's 3.94 ERA and 4.26 FIP, giving Los Angeles the stronger overall pitching staff figures even though Pivetta's personal numbers this season have been sharp.
Several roster notes are attached to this game. Yency Almonte and Ben Casparius are both listed on the 60-Day IL for the Dodgers, and Jake Cousins carries the same 60-Day IL status for Los Angeles. For the Padres, Miguel Andujar is listed on the 10-Day IL, while Humberto Cruz and Yu Darvish are both listed as Out. Taken together, the Dodgers present the stronger team-wide offensive and run-prevention profile, while Pivetta's individual peripheral numbers give the Padres a reason for optimism in this particular pitching matchup.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Padres +1.5. Confidence: Slight Lean.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Dodgers: Max Muncy. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Padres: Ethan Salas. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.