Preview for Sunday, October 4, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers
San Diego Padres visit Milwaukee Brewers with a 4:00 PM ET start listed in the schedule feed. The listed starters are Michael King for San Diego and Logan Henderson for Milwaukee, though the feed is clear that this is not independent confirmation of the final lineup. King has worked approximately 185.0 innings with a 3.21 ERA and a WP-calculated FIP of 4.20, so his ERA sits comfortably below his FIP. Henderson has thrown approximately 98.3 innings with a 2.47 ERA and a WP-calculated FIP of 3.39.
On the mound, the numbers lean toward Henderson: his ERA and his FIP are both lower, and lower is the better mark for run prevention. King's workload is the larger one, with more innings behind his figures, while Henderson's smaller sample is still strong on both measures. The team-level figures point the same way. Milwaukee has a WP-estimated FIP of 3.79 and an ERA of 3.51, against San Diego's WP-estimated FIP of 4.27 and ERA of 3.99.
Offence also favours the home side on the available figures, with Milwaukee at a WP-estimated wOBA of 0.325 to San Diego's 0.313. Rotowire lists Grant Anderson on the 15-Day IL, J.B. Bukauskas on the 60-Day IL and Sean Episcope on the 60-Day IL for Milwaukee, while for San Diego it lists Miguel Andujar on the 10-Day IL and Humberto Cruz and Yu Darvish with a status of Out; these are source reports rather than assessments of impact. With the better starter figures, run prevention and offence all sitting with Milwaukee, the numbers favour the Brewers.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Brewers moneyline. Confidence: Strong.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Brewers: Gary Sánchez. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Padres: Ty France. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.