Preview for Sunday, September 27, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
Baltimore visits New York with the Yankees carrying a slightly better overall run-prevention profile, as their team ERA of 3.24 and FIP of 3.78 both come in lower than Baltimore's 4.08 ERA and 4.10 FIP. On offense the two clubs are close, with the Yankees' WP-estimated wOBA of 0.312 just a touch ahead of the Orioles' 0.310, suggesting neither lineup holds a clear edge over the other in generating runs.
On the mound, Shane Baz gets the ball for Baltimore after logging approximately 179.7 innings this season with a 4.11 ERA and a 3.69 FIP, the FIP figure indicating his peripheral numbers have been a bit stronger than his run allowed mark. New York counters with Elmer Rodríguez, who has thrown roughly 26.7 innings with a 5.40 ERA and a 4.93 FIP, both well behind Baz's marks in this matchup. That gap in both innings totals and rate stats gives Baz a clear favorable comparison over Rodríguez heading into this start.
Roster-wise, Baltimore has Keegan Akin listed on the 60-Day IL, Blaze Alexander listed on the 10-Day IL, and Samuel Basallo listed on the 7-Day IL, while New York has Angel Benitez and Kervin Castro listed on the 60-Day IL and Angel Chivilli listed on the 7-Day IL. Taken together, the team-level pitching numbers and the starting pitcher comparison both favor New York, with the Yankees' lower ERA and FIP as a team and Baz being the lone reliable arm advantage for Baltimore against a Yankees starter working with a much smaller innings sample.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Orioles +1.5. Confidence: Slight Lean.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Orioles: Christian Encarnacion-Strand. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Yankees: Luis García Jr.. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.