Preview for Tuesday, September 15, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Baltimore Orioles at New York Mets
The Orioles head to New York for a matchup between Shane Baz and Sean Manaea. Baz brings a 4.05 ERA and a 3.61 FIP over approximately 169.0 innings pitched, marks that stand ahead of Manaea's 4.79 ERA and 4.56 FIP across roughly 133.3 innings. That gap in both ERA and FIP suggests Baz has been the more effective run-preventer this season, both in traditional results and in the underlying peripherals that FIP is designed to capture.
On the team level, the two clubs are fairly close across the board. Baltimore's offense carries a WP-estimated wOBA of 0.310 compared to New York's 0.306, giving the Orioles a slight edge at the plate. Team pitching numbers are tighter still, with the Orioles at a 4.19 FIP and 4.18 ERA against the Mets' 4.14 FIP and 4.16 ERA, meaning New York's staff as a whole grades out marginally better than Baltimore's even though Baz individually outpaces Manaea.
Both clubs are dealing with notable absences on their injury lists. Keegan Akin and Felix Bautista are listed on the 60-Day IL for Baltimore, while Blaze Alexander is listed on the 10-Day IL. New York, meanwhile, has Boston Baro and Reed Garrett listed on the 60-Day IL and Danis Correa listed on the 7-Day IL. Weighing the starting pitching matchup against the team-wide figures, Baz's clear advantage in ERA and FIP over Manaea, paired with Baltimore's edge in wOBA, gives the Orioles the stronger set of numbers heading into this one, even though the Mets' overall pitching staff rates a touch better in the aggregate.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Orioles +1.5. Confidence: Slight Lean.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Mets: Francisco Lindor. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Orioles: Coby Mayo. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.