Preview for Sunday, September 20, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals
Washington and St. Louis meet with Jake Irvin taking the mound for the Nationals against Quinn Mathews for the Cardinals. Irvin has worked approximately 96.3 innings this season with an ERA of 5.51 and a WP-calculated FIP of 5.18, while Mathews has thrown roughly 37.3 innings with a much sharper ERA of 3.62 and a FIP of 3.65. On the season-to-date numbers, Mathews holds a clear edge in run prevention over Irvin across both ERA and FIP.
Looking at the team-wide figures, the Nationals carry a WP-estimated wOBA of 0.323 compared to the Cardinals' 0.305, giving Washington the better offensive mark of the two. On the pitching side, though, St. Louis shows a lower team ERA of 4.30 and a lower FIP of 4.17 versus Washington's ERA of 4.66 and FIP of 4.75, suggesting the Cardinals' pitching staff has been the more effective group overall this season.
Several players are listed on injury designations for this matchup. Joshua Baez and Hunter Dobbins of the Cardinals are listed on the 10-Day IL and 15-Day IL respectively, while Frank Elissalt is listed on the 60-Day IL for St. Louis. For Washington, Tyler Baum, Connelly Early, and DJ Herz are all listed on the 60-Day IL. Weighing the full set of figures, the Cardinals' advantages in team ERA, team FIP, and their starter's markedly better ERA and FIP compared to Irvin give St. Louis the stronger overall statistical profile in this game, even though Washington's team wOBA is the better offensive number of the two.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Nationals +1.5. Confidence: Slight Lean.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Cardinals: Alec Burleson. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Nationals: Andrés Chaparro. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.