Preview for Saturday, September 19, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals
The Nationals head to St. Louis with Andrew Alvarez on the mound, and his numbers look sharp on paper, an ERA of 3.35 and a FIP of 3.34 over approximately 102.0 innings pitched. The Cardinals counter with Michael McGreevy, who has logged the heavier workload at approximately 160.0 innings pitched, with an ERA of 3.83 and a FIP of 4.26. Comparing the two, Alvarez holds the lower ERA and the lower FIP, giving him the edge in the pitching matchup on a rate basis, even though McGreevy has thrown considerably more innings this season.
Looking at the team-wide figures, Washington's offense carries a WP-estimated wOBA of 0.324 compared to St. Louis's 0.305, which favors the Nationals at the plate. On the run-prevention side, though, the Cardinals as a team show a lower ERA at 4.30 versus Washington's 4.69, and St. Louis also holds a lower team FIP at 4.18 against the Nationals' 4.78. So while Washington's lineup grades out better by wOBA, the Cardinals' pitching staff overall has been stingier by both ERA and FIP.
Several injury notes are attached to this game. Joshua Baez of the Cardinals is listed on the 10-Day IL, Hunter Dobbins of the Cardinals is listed on the 15-Day IL, and Frank Elissalt of the Cardinals is listed on the 60-Day IL. For Washington, Tyler Baum, Connelly Early, and DJ Herz are all listed on the 60-Day IL. Weighing everything together, Alvarez's superior individual ERA and FIP give Washington a starting-pitching advantage, while the Cardinals' better team ERA and FIP push back in their favor, making this a matchup where the two sides' figures largely offset each other.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Nationals moneyline. Confidence: Confident.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Cardinals: Leo Bernal. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Nationals: Yohandy Morales. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.