Preview for Friday, September 18, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals
The Nationals head to St. Louis with Cade Cavalli on the mound, and his numbers stand out in this matchup. Cavalli has worked approximately 164.7 innings with a 3.12 ERA and a 3.40 FIP, both figures noticeably better than what Kyle Leahy has produced for the Cardinals across his 135.0 innings, where he carries a 3.33 ERA and a 3.58 FIP. Leahy's marks are still solid on their own terms, but Cavalli's edge in both ERA and FIP gives Washington the stronger arm on paper for this one.
Offensively the Nationals also come in with a better wOBA at 0.324 compared to the Cardinals' 0.305, suggesting Washington's lineup has been the more productive of the two so far this season. St. Louis does hold an advantage in team-level run prevention, with a 4.17 FIP and 4.28 ERA that both look better than Washington's 4.80 FIP and 4.71 ERA, so the Cardinals' pitching staff as a whole has been the steadier unit even though tonight's starter comparison favors the visitors.
Both clubs are dealing with notable absences on the pitching side. Tyler Baum and Connelly Early and DJ Herz are all listed on the 60-Day IL for Washington, while Hunter Dobbins is listed on the 15-Day IL for St. Louis and Frank Elissalt and Richard Fitts are both listed on the 60-Day IL for the Cardinals. Weighing the individual matchup against the team totals, Cavalli's superior ERA and FIP alongside Washington's better team wOBA give the Nationals the edge in the numbers that are most directly tied to tonight's starters, even as St. Louis leans on a better overall staff FIP and ERA.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Cardinals +1.5. Confidence: Slight Lean.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Cardinals: Joshua Báez. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Nationals: Yohandy Morales. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.