Preview for Saturday, October 3, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians
Chicago White Sox visit the Cleveland Guardians at 1:00 PM ET, and the starting pitching comparison is more interesting than the team numbers suggest. The schedule feed lists Hagen Smith for Chicago and Parker Messick for Cleveland. Smith has an ERA of 1.29 and a WP-calculated FIP of 2.42, but that comes over approximately 28.0 innings pitched, a small sample. Messick has an ERA of 2.56 and a FIP of 3.14 across approximately 186.3 innings, a much larger body of work. Smith's rate figures are lower, which is the better mark, but the thin innings count means they carry less weight than Messick's season-long record.
At the team level the numbers lean toward Cleveland. The Guardians carry a WP-estimated wOBA of 0.305 against 0.316 for Chicago, so the White Sox hold the better offensive figure. On run prevention, though, Cleveland is better on both measures, with a WP-estimated FIP of 3.88 and an ERA of 3.77, compared with a FIP of 4.32 and an ERA of 4.12 for Chicago. Cleveland's pitching staff therefore grades out as the sturdier unit, even though Chicago's bats rate slightly ahead.
On the injury front, Rotowire lists Brooks Baldwin and Aldrin Batista of the White Sox on the 60-Day IL and Joey Bart on the 10-Day IL. For Cleveland, Robert Arias is listed on the 60-Day IL, Jonah Advincula on the 7-Day IL, and Emmanuel Clase with the status 'Out'. These are source reports rather than statements about this game. Weighing the figures, Cleveland's better team run-prevention marks and Messick's larger, steadier sample give the Guardians the edge, while Smith's strong but brief numbers keep the White Sox competitive.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: White Sox +1.5. Confidence: Slight Lean.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Guardians: Angel Martínez. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for White Sox: Randal Grichuk. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers
The Atlanta Braves face the Los Angeles Dodgers at 4:00 PM ET, and the available figures point firmly toward the home side. Los Angeles has a WP-estimated wOBA of 0.331 against 0.311 for Atlanta, so the Dodgers have the better offensive mark. On the pitching side, Los Angeles posts a WP-estimated FIP of 3.75 and an ERA of 3.55, while Atlanta sits at a FIP of 4.20 and an ERA of 3.63. The Dodgers are lower, and therefore better, on both measures, though the ERA gap is narrow.
The schedule feed lists Tarik Skubal as the Dodgers' starter, and his season figures are strong: an ERA of 2.72 and a WP-calculated FIP of 2.58 over approximately 158.7 innings pitched. Starting-pitcher information for Atlanta is unavailable in this preview, so there is no head-to-head pitcher comparison to make. That leaves the Dodgers with a known, well-performing starter against an unknown, which adds to their side of the ledger.
Rotowire lists Yency Almonte, Ben Casparius and Jake Cousins of the Dodgers on the 60-Day IL, along with Atlanta's Rayven Antonio and Starlyn De La Cruz on the 60-Day IL and Bryce Elder on the 15-Day IL. These are listed statuses only and say nothing definitive about how either club will line up. On the numbers available, the Dodgers are favoured by their better offence, better team run prevention, and the presence of Skubal on the schedule.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
No rated WP selection is available in this article snapshot.
WP home-run candidate for Braves: Ronald Acuña Jr.. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Dodgers: Max Muncy. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
This matchup has the New York Yankees visiting the Tampa Bay Rays. The listed start is 6:30 PM ET.
Gerrit Cole, the listed starter for the New York Yankees, has an ERA of 3.61 and a WP-calculated FIP of 4.00 in the available pitching data, covering approximately 127.0 innings. Drew Rasmussen, the listed starter for the Tampa Bay Rays, has an ERA of 2.67 and a WP-calculated FIP of 2.89 in the available pitching data, covering approximately 172.0 innings. These are schedule listings, not independent confirmation of the final starters.
Team statistics for the New York Yankees show a WP-estimated wOBA of 0.312, a WP-estimated FIP of 3.78 and an ERA of 3.23. Team statistics for the Tampa Bay Rays show a WP-estimated wOBA of 0.317, a WP-estimated FIP of 4.11 and an ERA of 3.70.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Yankees +1.5. Confidence: Slight Lean.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Rays: Victor Mesa Jr.. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Yankees: Luis García Jr.. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers
The San Diego Padres travel to face the Milwaukee Brewers at 8:30 PM ET, and the starting-pitcher comparison is the clearest advantage on the board. The schedule feed lists Jacob Misiorowski for Milwaukee, with an ERA of 1.80 and a WP-calculated FIP of 2.24 across approximately 174.7 innings pitched. Robbie Ray is listed for San Diego with an ERA of 3.59 and a FIP of 4.76 over approximately 165.7 innings. Misiorowski is lower on both marks, which is the better side of each, on a comparable workload.
The team numbers point the same direction. Milwaukee has a WP-estimated wOBA of 0.325 against 0.313 for San Diego, the better offensive mark. On run prevention, the Brewers post a WP-estimated FIP of 3.79 and an ERA of 3.51, while the Padres sit at a FIP of 4.27 and an ERA of 3.99, so Milwaukee is lower and better on both. Ray's gap between his ERA and his FIP is also worth noting, as the FIP suggests his results may have been kinder than the underlying process.
Rotowire lists Humberto Cruz and Yu Darvish of the Padres with the status 'Out', and Miguel Andujar on the 10-Day IL, while Milwaukee's Grant Anderson is listed on the 15-Day IL and J.B. Bukauskas and Sean Episcope on the 60-Day IL. These are listed statuses only. With the better starter, the better offence and the better team run prevention, every available figure favours the Brewers.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Brewers moneyline. Confidence: Strong.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Brewers: Gary Sánchez. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Padres: Ty France. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.