MLB Predictions for Friday, July 31, 2026: WP Baseball Predictor's Best Bets
Friday's MLB slate is loaded with 15 games stretching from a 2:20 PM ET afternoon matchup at Wrigley Field all the way to a pair of 10:10 PM ET West Coast finales. WP Baseball Predictor's advanced sabermetric engine — built on metrics like wOBA, FIP, DER, Pythagorean Win%, and pitcher xFIP — has crunched every lineup and matchup. Here are the games that matter most today, along with our top picks and a couple of dark horse home run plays worth monitoring.
Top Games to Watch on July 31, 2026
Detroit Tigers @ Oakland Athletics (9:40 PM ET) — Casey Mize vs. Jeffrey Springs
This is WP Baseball Predictor's most lopsided projection of the day. Our model gives the Tigers a commanding 74.1% win probability against Oakland, making the Tigers moneyline the strongest single-game value on the board tonight. Casey Mize takes the hill against Jeffrey Springs in what the analytics frame as a significant pitching advantage for Detroit. When a team carries a win probability north of 74%, the moneyline becomes difficult to fade regardless of the current line. This is the marquee confident play on Friday's card.
Dark Horse HR Watch — Eduardo Valencia (Tigers): With the Tigers projected to control this game, Valencia is a legitimate power threat in a favorable matchup environment. In games where Detroit is this heavily favored, run-scoring opportunities compound, making Valencia a strong value target on home run props tonight.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels (9:38 PM ET) — Shane Drohan vs. Ryan Johnson
Right behind Detroit, the Brewers carry a 69.0% win probability against the Angels, and WP Baseball Predictor issues a confident Brewers moneyline play. Shane Drohan opposing Ryan Johnson in Anaheim sets up as another pitching matchup that tilts heavily in Milwaukee's favor according to our model. The Angels sit at just a 31.1% win probability — one of the lowest figures across the entire Friday slate — making this a two-game power parlay candidate alongside the Tigers if you're building a same-night ticket.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds (6:10 PM ET) — Paul Skenes vs. Hunter Greene
This is the most compelling pitching matchup of the evening. Paul Skenes and Hunter Greene represent two of the most electric arms in baseball meeting in a divisional setting, and yet WP Baseball Predictor's model sides firmly with Pittsburgh on the moneyline at a 58.6% win probability. In a game featuring two high-profile starters, that margin is meaningful. The Reds sit at just 41.4%, suggesting the model sees a broader team-level advantage for the Pirates beyond the mound. This is a prime-time pick worth prioritizing on your Friday card.
Dark Horse HR Watch — Esmerlyn Valdez (Pirates): With Pittsburgh projected to win outright at nearly 59%, Valdez emerging as a pop threat against Hunter Greene in a contested divisional environment makes him a genuine value play on HR props. Greene's high-velocity profile can create loud contact when batters make connection, and Valdez is positioned to take advantage.
Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies (8:40 PM ET) — Michael Wacha vs. Tomoyuki Sugano
Coors Field always demands attention, and Friday night is no exception. The Royals enter with a 60.2% win probability, and WP Baseball Predictor backs Kansas City on the moneyline against Colorado and Tomoyuki Sugano. Michael Wacha opposing Sugano in Denver is a matchup where Kansas City's overall team metrics give them a clear edge. At 60.2%, this sits comfortably in the "strong lean" category — the kind of play the model has consistent long-term confidence in when the probability clears 60%.
New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs (2:20 PM ET) — Will Warren vs. Shota Imanaga
The afternoon feature at Wrigley is our most nuanced play of the day. The Cubs hold a 54.6% win probability, yet WP Baseball Predictor issues a Yankees +1.5 run line rather than a Cubs moneyline. That distinction matters. Will Warren squaring off against Shota Imanaga creates a competitive pitching environment where the Yankees are projected to keep the game close even without winning outright. The +1.5 provides a cushion that our model identifies as the smarter value position in this matchup, rather than backing the favorite straight up.
Friday's Full Slate at a Glance
- Tigers ML (74.1%) — Highest confidence pick of the day
- Brewers ML (69.0%) — Strong secondary moneyline play
- Royals ML (60.2%) — Solid favorite in Coors Field environment
- Pirates ML (58.6%) — Elite pitching duel, model favors Pittsburgh
- Yankees +1.5 (45.4%) — Run line value despite projected loss
WP Baseball Predictor's Bottom Line
Friday July 31st offers a deep, high-quality slate with several strong moneyline plays supported by WP Baseball Predictor's sabermetric model. The Tigers and Brewers stand out as the day's most confident picks, while the Pirates-Reds pitching duel and the Yankees run line provide excellent mid-tier value. As always, these projections reflect advanced analytics — not guarantees — so practice responsible bankroll management and enjoy the action.
All win probabilities and picks generated by WP Baseball Predictor's proprietary sabermetric model. Visit wpbaseballpredictor.com for full game analysis and daily updated predictions.