MLB Predictions for Friday, August 28, 2026: WP Baseball Predictor's Best Bets
Friday's MLB slate brings 15 games and a wealth of betting opportunities, and WP Baseball Predictor's advanced sabermetric engine — powered by wOBA, FIP, DER, Pythagorean Win%, and pitcher xFIP — has crunched the numbers on every matchup. Below, we break down the most compelling games of the night, highlight our strongest moneyline picks, and identify the dark horse home run bets worth keeping on your radar.
Top Games to Watch on August 28, 2026
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs — 2:20 PM ET
The afternoon opener features Rhett Lowder taking the mound for Cincinnati against David Peterson for Chicago, and WP Baseball Predictor's model comes down firmly on the North Side. The Cubs carry a Confident-tier win probability against for the Reds, making this one of the more lopsided matchups on the board today. The Cubs moneyline is our clear play here — the gap in projected performance is wide enough to justify backing Chicago regardless of the price adjustment.
Dark Horse HR Pick — Michael Conforto (Cubs): With the Cubs projected to control this game offensively, Conforto offers legitimate pop against a Reds starter the model doesn't favor. He's a value play in a lineup expected to produce.
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees — 7:15 PM ET
The rivalry game is circled on every bettor's card tonight. Patrick Sandoval starts for Boston while Cam Schlittler gets the ball for New York, and WP's model sides heavily with the Yankees at Confident-tier win probability to Boston. That's a significant edge, and the Yankees moneyline is one of our strongest plays on the evening slate. The Bronx home-field factor pairs with the model's overall preference to make New York a confident selection.
Dark Horse HR Pick — Luis García Jr. (Yankees): García represents excellent dark horse value in a game where the Yankees are projected to do plenty of offensive damage. In a high-profile rivalry spot at home, he's worth a look on the HR props market.
Texas Rangers @ Milwaukee Brewers — 7:40 PM ET
This matchup pits Cody Bradford against Logan Henderson, and the numbers couldn't be clearer — WP Baseball Predictor gives Milwaukee a commanding Strong-tier win probability, the highest of any home favorite on tonight's slate. The Rangers check in, and the Brewers moneyline stands as arguably our most confident pick of the night. When the model's win probability climbs this high, the moneyline is hard to fade regardless of odds.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals — 8:15 PM ET
Jared Jones starts for Pittsburgh against Quinn Mathews in St. Louis, and the Pirates come in as a notable road favorite in WP's model at Confident-tier win probability versus the Cardinals. The Pirates moneyline carries genuine value here — road teams with win probabilities this elevated don't come around every night, and Pittsburgh has the edge across the analytic profile. Back the Pirates.
Houston Astros @ New York Mets — 7:10 PM ET
Hunter Brown squares off against Christian Scott in a game where the Astros hold a narrow to edge in win probability— close enough that the straight moneyline on Houston carries risk. WP Baseball Predictor's pick here is the Mets +1.5 run line, which provides insurance in what projects as a tight, competitive contest. The Mets have enough offensive upside to stay within striking distance even if the Astros ultimately prevail.
Additional WP Picks at a Glance
- Dodgers moneyline vs. Detroit (6:40 PM ET) — Los Angeles carries a Strong-tier win probability behind Tarik Skubal facing Drew Anderson.
- Marlins moneyline vs. Washington (6:45 PM ET) — Miami at 62.2% with Eury Pérez on the hill is a solid play on the early evening card.
- Braves moneyline vs. Colorado (7:15 PM ET)— Atlanta checks in, one of the strongest home-favorite edges of the night.
- White Sox +1.5 vs. Minnesota (8:10 PM ET) — Interestingly, the model actually favors Chicago, making the run line a value hedge with a cushion.
- Giants +1.5 vs. Arizona (10:15 PM ET) — San Francisco holds a Slight-Lean-tier win probability, and the run line adds comfort in a West Coast closer.
Friday's Best Bets Summary
- 🔵 Cubs moneyline — Confident-tier win probability (vs. CIN, 2:20 PM)
- 🟡 Brewers moneyline — Strong-tier win probability (vs. TEX, 7:40 PM)
- ⚫ Yankees moneyline — Confident-tier win probability (vs. BOS, 7:15 PM)
- 🟠 Pirates moneyline — Confident-tier win probability (@ STL, 8:15 PM)
- 🔵 Mets +1.5 — Competitive spot against Houston (7:10 PM)
All predictions are generated by WP Baseball Predictor's sabermetric model and are intended for entertainment and informational purposes. For the full breakdown of every game on tonight's slate — including complete probability tables and prop analysis — visit wpbaseballpredictor.com. Play responsibly.