MLB Predictions for Friday, August 7, 2026: WP Baseball Predictor's Best Bets
Friday night baseball is here, and WP Baseball Predictor has run the numbers on all 15 games on the August 7, 2026 slate. Using advanced sabermetric analytics — including wOBA, FIP, DER, Pythagorean Win%, and pitcher xFIP — our model has identified the strongest plays of the evening. Here's a breakdown of the matchups worth watching and the picks our system is backing tonight.
Top Matchup of the Night: Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks (9:40 PM ET)
The late-night showdown between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks is the marquee matchup on the board. Roki Sasaki takes the mound for Los Angeles against Arizona's Merrill Kelly in what shapes up as a compelling pitching duel in the desert.
WP Baseball Predictor's model gives the Dodgers a 61.0% win probability, making this one of the cleaner moneyline plays on the slate. With a 21-percentage-point edge over the Diamondbacks (39.0%), the analytics firmly point toward Los Angeles. WP Pick: Dodgers moneyline.
Keep an eye on Max Muncy as a dark horse home run play for the Dodgers. Muncy has the kind of pull-side power profile that can exploit a pitcher working in a hitter-friendly environment, making him a legitimate value target in HR prop markets tonight.
Pitching Spotlight: Wheeler Dominates in Phillies vs. Blue Jays (6:40 PM ET)
One of the strongest pitcher-driven predictions of the night comes from Citizens Bank Park, where the Philadelphia Phillies host the Toronto Blue Jays. Zack Wheeler toes the rubber for Philadelphia against Toronto's José Soriano, and the matchup heavily favors the home side.
WP's model projects the Phillies at a 60.0% win probability compared to just 40.0% for the Blue Jays. The gulf between these two starters, as reflected in our sabermetric modeling, is a primary driver of that margin. WP Pick: Phillies moneyline.
Bryan De La Cruz earns our dark horse HR nod on the Phillies side. Slotted into a lineup backed by a strong pitching performance, De La Cruz represents solid value in the home run market against a Toronto arm our model doesn't favor tonight.
Run-Line Value: Red Sox vs. Athletics (7:10 PM ET)
If you're hunting run-line value on Friday, look no further than Boston Red Sox vs. Oakland Athletics. WP Baseball Predictor's model produces one of the most lopsided win probabilities of the entire slate here — Red Sox at 77.5%, Athletics at just 22.5%.
Payton Tolle gets the nod for Boston against Oakland's Jack Perkins, and the model strongly favors the Red Sox not just to win, but to cover. WP Pick: Red Sox -1.5. At those implied probabilities, the run line offers meaningful value over the standard moneyline price you'll find at the book.
Fade the Favorite: Orioles at Rangers (8:15 PM ET)
Here's one of the more intriguing contrarian plays of the night. The Baltimore Orioles travel to Texas to face Nathan Eovaldi and the Rangers, with Shane Baz starting for Baltimore. Despite the Rangers likely carrying shorter moneyline odds as home favorites, WP's model actually gives the Orioles a 56.4% win probability — flipping the expected narrative entirely.
Rather than chasing a potentially inflated Rangers price, the smarter play according to our analytics is on Baltimore with a cushion. WP Pick: Orioles +1.5. Christian Encarnacion-Strand is flagged as a dark horse HR candidate for the Orioles, and a big performance from him could be the difference in a close road win.
Surprising Lean: Rays Over Mariners (9:45 PM ET)
The Tampa Bay Rays visiting the Seattle Mariners features a compelling pitching matchup between Drew Rasmussen and Logan Gilbert. Conventional wisdom might lean toward Seattle at home, but WP Baseball Predictor's sabermetric model tells a different story.
Tampa Bay comes in with a 59.6% win probability against Seattle's 40.4%, a substantial edge that our system doesn't take lightly. WP Pick: Rays moneyline. This is one of tonight's most valuable moneyline plays if the market is pricing the Mariners as home favorites.
Friday's Full Slate: Quick Hits
- Yankees vs. Braves (7:05 PM ET): Max Fried on the mound gives New York a 59.7% edge. WP Pick: Yankees moneyline.
- Brewers vs. Twins (7:40 PM ET): Milwaukee projected at 67.0% — one of the highest win probabilities on the board. WP Pick: Brewers moneyline.
- Cardinals vs. Rockies (8:15 PM ET): St. Louis holds a 66.4% win probability at home. WP Pick: Cardinals moneyline.
- Reds vs. Nationals & Cubs vs. Royals: Both games currently sit at 50/50 with TBD starters — WP recommends holding off until lineups are confirmed.
Friday's WP Baseball Predictor Best Bets Summary
- 🔵 Dodgers ML vs. Diamondbacks — 61.0% win probability
- 🔵 Red Sox -1.5 vs. Athletics — 77.5% win probability
- 🔵 Phillies ML vs. Blue Jays — 60.0% win probability
- 🔵 Orioles +1.5 at Rangers — 56.4% win probability
- 🔵 Rays ML at Mariners — 59.6% win probability
All predictions are generated by WP Baseball Predictor's proprietary sabermetric engine. Visit wpbaseballpredictor.com for full game-by-game breakdowns, updated lineups, and live model adjustments throughout the day. Play responsibly.