MLB Predictions for Tuesday, August 4, 2026: WP Baseball Predictor's Best Bets
Tuesday brings a loaded 15-game MLB slate, and WP Baseball Predictor's sabermetric engine has been grinding through wOBA, FIP, DER, and Pythagorean Win% data to find the edges worth targeting. From a dominant Dodgers road favorite to a pair of tight run-line plays, here are the matchups and picks you need to know before first pitch tonight.
Top Games to Watch on August 4, 2026
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs (8:05 PM ET) — WP Pick: Dodgers Moneyline
This is WP's most confident pick of the night. The model gives the Dodgers a 60.9% win probability against the Cubs, making this the highest single-game edge on the entire slate. The pitching matchup features Tarik Skubal taking the mound for Los Angeles against Javier Assad for Chicago. The Dodgers' offensive profile and underlying run-prevention metrics push them well clear of a coin-flip in Wrigley, and the model is firmly behind them on the moneyline.
Dark Horse HR Alert — Enrique Hernández (Dodgers): With the Cubs likely leaning on Assad to work deep into the game, Hernández represents a sneaky power option deeper in a dangerous Dodgers lineup. In a high-probability Dodgers win scenario, secondary hitters tend to see better counts and extra opportunities. Hernández is a value play worth noting on your HR prop sheet tonight.
Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals (7:40 PM ET) — WP Pick: Twins Moneyline
The Twins come in as the model's second-strongest moneyline play of the evening, posting a 59.5% win probability against Kansas City. Joe Ryan gets the start for Minnesota, facing Randy Dobnak on the Royals' side. The underlying analytics favor the Twins' ability to generate quality offense against Dobnak, and Minnesota's run-prevention profile gives them a meaningful edge that the model's Pythagorean Win% calculation captures clearly. This is a strong standalone bet or a reliable piece of any Tuesday parlay.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers (7:40 PM ET) — WP Pick: Brewers Moneyline
Milwaukee checks in with a 62.4% win probability — the highest on the board for any single game with a clear moneyline recommendation tonight. Logan Henderson gets the ball for the Brewers against Jared Jones for Pittsburgh, and the Brewers' home-field advantages compound with stronger underlying metrics across the board. At 62.4%, this is the kind of number WP's engine treats as a genuine edge rather than noise, making Milwaukee one of the cleaner moneyline options of the evening.
Dark Horse HR Alert — Gary Sánchez (Brewers): Sánchez carries legitimate pull-side power and, with the Brewers projected to score in a favorable offensive environment at home, he profiles as a strong under-the-radar HR candidate at American Family Field. If Milwaukee gets rolling early, Sánchez could be one of the bigger value plays available at his likely odds.
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (6:40 PM ET) — WP Pick: Phillies Moneyline
The Phillies carry a 59.9% win probability at home against Washington, with Jesús Luzardo on the mound facing Zack Littell for the Nationals. Philadelphia's lineup depth and home environment back up what the model sees in the run-prevention and run-creation data. With the Nationals projected at just 40.1%, this is a firm lean toward the Phillies on the moneyline as an early-evening anchor play.
New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians (6:40 PM ET) — WP Pick: Mets +1.5
This is one of the tightest matchups on the slate, with the model giving the Mets a razor-thin 50.8% win probability over Cleveland. Sean Manaea starts for New York against Joey Cantillo for the Guardians. Because the edge is so slim, WP recommends the Mets on the run line at +1.5 rather than the moneyline — capturing value in what figures to be a close, competitive game. When the model shows near-even probability, the run line is the smarter play, and that's exactly the logic here.
Additional Picks at a Glance
- Oakland Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds (6:40 PM ET): Reds moneyline — Cincinnati at 58.7% is a solid favorite with J.T. Ginn vs. Brady Singer on the mound.
- St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees (7:05 PM ET): Yankees moneyline — New York at 61.5% is among the stronger win probabilities of the night.
- San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers (8:05 PM ET): Giants +1.5 — Interestingly, the Giants hold a 55.8% win probability over Texas, making the run line a low-risk play on a team already favored by the model.
- Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies (8:40 PM ET): Rockies +1.5 — The Rays hold a 55.0% edge, but at Coors Field the run line provides cushion in an unpredictable environment.
Tuesday's WP Best Bet Summary
- 🔵 Best Moneyline: Milwaukee Brewers (62.4%)
- 🔵 Best Run Line: Mets +1.5 (near-even game, value on the spread)
- 🎯 Dark Horse HR #1: Enrique Hernández, Dodgers
- 🎯 Dark Horse HR #2: Gary Sánchez, Brewers
As always, WP Baseball Predictor's picks are powered by advanced sabermetric analytics — not gut feelings. Visit wpbaseballpredictor.com for full model breakdowns, updated probabilities, and the complete August 4th card as lineups are confirmed closer to first pitch. Good luck tonight.