Preview for Thursday, September 24, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
New York Mets at Texas Rangers
The Mets head to Texas for a 2:35 PM ET matchup with Zac Thornton on the mound against the Rangers' Kumar Rocker. Thornton has worked approximately 79.3 innings with a 3.40 ERA, though his WP-calculated FIP sits higher at 4.57, suggesting his run prevention has outpaced the underlying peripherals. Rocker has logged a heavier workload at approximately 143.0 innings, with a 4.47 ERA and a WP-calculated FIP of 4.44, figures that are fairly consistent with one another and paint him as a steady if unspectacular innings-eater.
Offensively, the two clubs are close on the team level. The Rangers carry a WP-estimated wOBA of 0.310 compared to the Mets' 0.306, giving Texas a slight edge at the plate. On the run-prevention side, New York's team ERA of 4.14 and FIP of 4.12 are both a bit better than Texas's team ERA of 4.30 and FIP of 4.23, suggesting the Mets' pitching staff as a whole has been marginally stingier than the Rangers' this season.
Several injury notes are attached to this game. Boston Baro of the Mets is listed on the 60-Day IL, while Danis Correa is listed on the 7-Day IL and Daniel Duarte is listed on the 15-Day IL. For Texas, Carter Baumler, Jalen Beeks, and Paul Bonzagni are all listed on the 60-Day IL. Weighing the two sides, the Mets hold a modest team-level pitching advantage through their ERA and FIP marks, while the Rangers show a slightly better team wOBA and a Rocker outing backed by consistent ERA and FIP readings, making this a closely balanced matchup on the numbers.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Mets +1.5. Confidence: Slight Lean.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Mets: Francisco Lindor. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Rangers: Justin Foscue. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.