Preview for Tuesday, September 22, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
New York Mets at Texas Rangers
The Mets head to Texas for an 8:05 PM ET matchup with Sean Manaea on the mound against the Rangers' MacKenzie Gore. Manaea has worked approximately 138.7 innings this season with a 4.74 ERA and a WP-calculated FIP of 4.61, while Gore has thrown more, approximately 165.7 innings, with a 4.67 ERA and a WP-calculated FIP of 3.96. The FIP gap favors Gore as the stronger run-prevention arm between the two, even though the ERA figures sit fairly close together.
Looking at the team-wide numbers, the Rangers hold a WP-estimated wOBA of 0.312 compared to the Mets' 0.306, giving Texas a slight offensive edge by that measure. On the run-prevention side, the Mets carry a team ERA of 4.17 and FIP of 4.15, both a bit lower than the Rangers' team ERA of 4.28 and FIP of 4.21, suggesting New York's pitching staff as a whole has been marginally stingier than Texas's this season.
Several injury notes surround this game without altering the core statistical picture. Boston Baro of the Mets is listed on the 60-Day IL, while Danis Correa is listed on the 7-Day IL and Daniel Duarte on the 15-Day IL for New York. On the Rangers' side, Carter Baumler, Jalen Beeks, and Paul Bonzagni are each listed on the 60-Day IL. Weighing the full set of figures, Texas's edge in team wOBA and Gore's lower FIP put the available numbers slightly in the Rangers' favor, though the Mets' better team ERA and FIP marks keep the matchup balanced overall.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Mets +1.5. Confidence: Slight Lean.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Mets: Francisco Lindor. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Rangers: Joc Pederson. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.